This article is a few days old, but I think it’s still interesting. The Polish Deputy Minister for Defence said this:
Today I wouldn’t even set a deadline anymore. Even some large-scale provocation by the Kremlin could quite plausibly happen within a matter of months.
Will Russia attack or sabotage NATO more than it is already doing? I hope not, but there have been indications in the news recently that such things could happen soon.
I found this article after googling, because this guy’s comments were referred to in another article today about the Russian government’s anger towards the UK.
It matches a pattern.
Acting upon advance warnings about a possible attempt or provocation by Russia, Finland has asked Sweden if they could station some ships and aircraft on Finnish territory just in case.
What we’re doing here in Estonia currently (besides already hosting extra troops from allied countries) officially, seems to be “our threat assessement has not changed”. Unofficially, the defense forces accepted almost 3 x times less conscripts (only the brightest crayons, and mostly into UAV / anti-air / artillery / missile roles) and all the paid personnel are taking refresher courses on modern methods of war. Meanwhile construction works in the border regions are underway, with anti-armor ditches being dug and dragon’s teeth stored near blockable places. Drone purchases are of course behind schedule.
Basically everyone in Eastern Europe considers it a possibility that Putin might make another miscalculation.
Putin should know that a miscalculation with NATO will absolutely guarantee that Ukraine gets the upper hand.
Someone more knowledgeable in the matter - what’s up with Poland? Russia constantly threatens UK, they have launched drones into Baltics, together with Belarus they try to bring sleeper agents into Latvia and Lithuania, they even threaten France, but Poland? Feels like that is amongst the most silent “fronts” yet Poland acts like they’re next. I’d actually be worried about Lithuania or Latvia.
They threaten the UK, France, Germany, etc for their internal audience, not the external one. To a middle class Russian (the target audience), those are “the west”, great empires, powerful players in the great game of geopolitics. It’s an empty affirmation to Russian citizens that they’re still at the big boy table. It would look bad internally threatening “weak Poland” without following through.
That doesn’t change or connect at all with the actual danger of an invasion. Before the full-scale war with Ukraine, Russia was “trying to negotiate between Ukraine and separatists”, they weren’t saber rattling. They quietly put their troops on the border for a “training exercise”, denied they were preparing for an invasion despite the British screaming from the rooftops, and then went in.
Specifically about Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia: yes, they’re in more danger than Poland, but an attack on them would pull Poland in. Poland sees an attack on them to be fundamentally the same as an attack on Poland.
denied they were preparing for an invasion despite the British screaming from the rooftops, and then went in.
The British and the Americans were rooftop screaming in concert:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/feb/20/a-war-foretold-cia-mi6-putin-ukraine-plans-russia
Poland remembers, that’s why.
I think in part because they know Poland will actually punch back, others will continue to play spy games and PR crap. Poland is ready to punch
Yeah nah, Russia can’t, it is as simple as that.
They can’t win against Ukraine, a country rifled with corruption and virtually no army.
Poland is well ahead of Russia.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces was small prior to 2014 but they grew it substantially after Russia snapped up Crimea and sent the little green men to fight them in the east which is part of why they were much more prepared for the renewed invasion efforts than they had been eight years prior. This is not to say that Russia stands a chance against NATO but it is to say that Ukraine presently has a very large and powerful army even compared to leading European powers at this point. Zelensky said France presently has about 200k men in the military while Ukraine had at that time some 980k men in the military, and Ukraine are spending many tens of billions of dollars on the military also.
Of course, it is a wartime economy. Same would happen to every pin Europe should shit hit the fan.
Given enough time to shift production over and train up people, certainly.
People keep thinking Russia would attack in order to conquer and occupy Europe for some reason. I doubt that would be the plan.
Russian economy is focused on weapon production now. Changing this focus would take time and cost a lot of money. Instead of doing that they can keep manufacturing weapons and send couple hundred thousand of their people to die in another war. Any direct attack on EU member would most likely send the entire block into recession. China could buy a lot of oil from Russia and help their economy in other ways in exchange for that favor.
Basically the fear is that another war is the easiest and best way to keep Russian economy running. The only cost would be more dead Russians and Putin doesn’t care about those.
The only cost would be more dead Russians and Putin doesn’t care about those
Nor do Russians, so many just say it’s their destiny
