• FaceDeer@fedia.io
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    4 hours ago

    Indeed, these are way better than a simple opinion poll if your goal is an actual prediction. People who are good at making predictions will be rewarded and continue to participate, those who are just going by vibes or whatever will lose money and hopefully learn to stay away. “Insider information” is kind of the point of markets like this, it’s a way to surface that information to the outside world.