in a way, this is my username:
Epicurus rejected any possibility of an afterlife, while still contending that one need not fear death: “Death is nothing to us; for that which is dissolved, is without sensation, and that which lacks sensation is nothing to us.”[72] From this doctrine arose the Epicurean Epitaph: Non fui, fui, non sum, non curo (“I was not; I was; I am not; I do not care.”), which is inscribed on the gravestones of his followers and seen on many ancient gravestones of the Roman Empire.[73]
In 20 years its stabilized tho, just gotta get over the baby boomers bump right? that are creating gray pressure on health and housing rn, soon a lot of people will inherit their gold, rich stay rich, tax inheritance. Japan is a glimpse in our future, they have to work 60 hours, and focus on automation and rely heavily on immigration even tho they don’t want to.
current population of Europe
Prediction in 50 years:
The area under the curve above 65 vs the area under the curve below 65 is the issue when combined with all of our institutions and social contracts being designed for endless growth
50% of all new homeless people in the US are above 55 years old which should tell you how this is going to go. It’s not going to be like Japan for most western nations. Japan is the best case scenario.
While I understand the reason why a demographic dropout would be a catastrophe, I fucking hate how they say it’s our fault, when they were the ones who fucked up everything in the first place
oh no declining birth rates, how horrible for the ones who decided not to have kids, and hence don’t have anyone to worry about
I would blame declining birth rates to liberalism and capitalism.
Oh you’re finally finding out? Oh noooooo all that fucking around for nothing. Oops.
There’s been a rash of people like Elon Musk posting rants about “declining birth rates in the developing world” (and sometimes dog whistling while at it) - getting upset that contrary to the worries of Malthus and Ehrlich, it turns out humans are not the same as bacteria in a petri dish just exponentially reproducing until they exhaust all the carrying capacity of their environment. Instead, it seems that those of us that are in paradigms where we have relatively high per capita energy and materials consumption, respond to economic, cultural and environmental stimuli, and slow our roll once we feel we are at an “x” threshold of population density and environmental & economic stress.
Given that we live on a finite planet with finite resources this small bit of self control might just be what saves humanity from a truly dystopian future.
What the demographic shift of less younger workers versus more retiring seniors does mean is that our systems of depending on constant growth of consumption for our faith in our currency and financial institutions, and for providing for government guaranteed retirement funding, both end up under threat - but those issues could still be easily fixed simply by allowing more immigration from the multitude of places on this globe that still have relatively high birth rates, that have plenty of people with strong work ethics seeking greater opportunities.
declining birth rates in the developing world
Looks like it ain’t developing anymore lol
I really like how you connected the birth rates and excessive consumerism as a self-fulfilling prophecy. As capitalism reaches its apex, motivations for increasing birth rate collapse. As birth rates collapse, excessive consumerism stagnates, because people can’t afford to retire.
Immigration is really irrelevant to this discussion. Every country is rapidly aging, including the poorer countries that currently have above-replacement birth rates. We’re all going down the same path. Some nations are just further along the path than others. Unless there’s a large population of Martians eager to immigrate that I’m not aware of, immigration is not a long term solution to this.
Total population across the planet is most certainly still climbing each and every year - significantly. And prior history (e.g. USA during the Ellis lsland era circa 1890-1924) shows allowing & enabling immigration most certainly can be a way of markedly improving economic outlooks for not just the immigrants but also the prior residents - for at least the next few decades, if not a good bit beyond that, perhaps even into the next century.
And as for beyond that - again, my take is we should be celebrating that it looks like humanity, is not going blindly pop out babies beyond the carrying capacity of our planet.
Of course we likely could be facing massive challenges due to climate change and idiotic policies being dictated by short sighted oligarchies. But at least it looks like the kind of overpopulation overshoot that was feared by lots of 20th century analysts might get avoided due to some arguably rational reactions by younger generations to the world they now find themselves in.
allowing more immigration from the multitude of places on this globe
But then the immigrants will take all the jobs and also not work and take all the money from citizens.
Do you even FOX bro?
I don’t think over population is the issue or under. It’s the dated, old systems we continue to rely on. I think we have a energy, and transport problem. We are scaling 1800s and 1900s tech. Instead of innovating modern approaches. We have a systems issues.
Yup. I’m just one private citizen. The replacement ratio of my country’s population is not my responsibility. 🤷♂️
Republicans will simply declare that child birth is the patriotic duty of every American woman of healthy reproductive capacity. Men will be drafted to war. Women will be drafted into childbirth via forced artificial insemination. Legally speaking, if a man can be drafted to give up his life and sacrifice his body “for the greater good of the nation,” there’s little reason that a woman couldn’t be drafted for forced birth. If your government can force you to die for your country, your government can force you to give birth for your country.
You think it’s gonna be forced artificial insemination in that scenario? It’s absolutely going to go back to the times where women have to marry bc they’re not allowed to own anything (land, bank account, their own bodies) and marital rape won’t be considered real bc husband’s own their wives. Of course, this is if the fascists get their way. Given how the left has been rising up and voting in actual leftists/socialists in the primaries these last few months, the fascists are going to have actual opposition rather than just controlled opposition corpo dems
It’s not that they’re afraid of society collapsing. They clearly don’t care about that, as most of what they do ignores that.
What they’re worried about is the “Great Replacement”, where white people become a minority. If that wasn’t what they were really afraid of, then they would consider the problem of declining birth rates to be easily solvable with immigration.
Also can’t oppress some wage slaves to to generate wealth for them if they are never born, it’s all about money at the end, white supremacy is a secondary concern
I mean, declining birth rates still cause problems. Even if you’re sane and don’t give a shit about shifting racial demographics.
Shits gonna be really rough for my generation when we’re too old to take care of ourselves, while also outnumbering the young people.
I hear this all the time, and it seems to ignore the glaring elephant in the room. When talking about whether you can keep an economic system going, what matters is not the ratio of workers to retirees, but the ratio of workers to dependents. Yes, we have more old people for each worker, but we also have fewer children. We can simply shift resources from child care to elder care. You manufacture more adult diapers and fewer infant diapers. More nurses go into gerentology than neonatal care. You shift government funding from elementary schools to pensions. More women can stay in the workforce, because fewer of us are having children. And those that do are having fewer of them.
We know that economies can adapt to rapidly growing populations. We’ve survived baby booms just fine. After WW2, in the US, we suddenly had to care for far more children than our system was ever built to handle. Yet we managed to muddle through it. If we can adapt to a baby boom, we can adapt to a slowly aging population. Capitalism, for all its flaws, does have some benefits. And one of those is that it’s pretty efficient at reallocating resources based on changing demand.
And honestly, there are some real upsides to declining population. We can ease our impact on the environment. The real cost of housing will decline. Scarcer workers will see their wages rise. This is the real reason the billionaires are so afraid of a declining population. They need millions of desperate people struggling just to scrape by. Do you think Amazon could run its hellish warehouses the way it does if the cost of housing was half what it currently is?
That all assumes people will not be living longer in the future.
The real cost of housing will decline.
Children generally live with their parents. We’d have to all start living with our elderly parents for it to be the same in terms of housing costs.
This is the real reason the billionaires are so afraid of a declining population. They need millions of desperate people struggling just to scrape by. Do you think Amazon could run its hellish warehouses the way it does if the cost of housing was half what it currently is?
You shouldn’t assume billionaires are that intelligent. A huge amount of money has been invested into AI on the promise that it will take away people’s jobs. billionaires are emotionally driven idiots. They learned from Jack Welch that if you cut jobs, line goes up. Therefore if you cut half of all the jobs, line goes up big. They’re small minded people that don’t think in terms of how the economy functions, they only care about their businesses.
If it were the case billionaires had some over arching plan for the economy, then Jeff Bezos would be thinking that if everyone were more prosperous, people would be buying more stuff from Amazon, wouldn’t he?
They just want a bigger percentage of the pie, they don’t care if the entire pie is smaller and in absolute terms a smaller percent of a bigger pie is more than a larger percent of a smaller pie. Why would they? They already have more money than they could ever spend, so they’re obsessed with having more power than their competitors. Racking up a high score and gaining more power.
But your (our?) generation won’t outnumber young people if young people keep immigrating. Not that “keep foisting the burden of perpetual growth on the young” is ACTUALLY a good plan, but it’s exactly the kind of selfish arch-capitalist thinking that they’d be all in favor of if it was white young people.
Okay I’m gonna play devil’s advocate, it’s worrying because we are not adapting our system.
I’ve always thought over population is a big issue but when I found out how our social security is intentionally a Ponzi scheme, it made me very worried.
I don’t give two shits about the replacement theory but I’m worried that I am getting paid shit throughout my adult life since labour isn’t expensive yet but
whenif I need to retire, labour could become super expensive.Of course a sane society would just use all the excess wealth today to invest in automation but if we were sane, a lot of things would be better.
Yeah I fully expect not to receive a state pension in the UK, the Ponzi-like economics of it just don’t work for an aging population with a falling birth rate.
The problem is that the government which brings in sustainability measures around this will be electorally annihilated for a generation at least, so the can keeps getting kicked down the road and the likelihood of events forcing a change rather than an orderly change in plenty of time increases.
Even if AI doesn’t reach the highs of science fiction, it will allow one person to do the work of many. Labor prices will probably keep going down for decades.
An absolutely disgusting thought.
Spoiler alert: they’ll just ban contraception, abortion and sex ed instead
Jokes on them, I’m not having any sex.
Meh, can’t have a baby in the mouth or the butt.
It’s interesting because it’s obvious that the reason why people are having less children is because they can’t afford it and they don’t think it’s a good idea for the children.
However, rather than actually remedying this situation, the people who want us to have as many children as humanly possible so they have more workers are doing everything in their power to make life worse.
Don’t care, I’m not producing wage slaves.
yeah basically. im actually fine with my genetic line going out if the earth goes on with a vibrant biosphere as well.
Declining birth rates and house prices dropping are both things the media love to make out are terrible things.
And they just aren’t.
I suppose house prices dropping are pretty terrible if you see your house only as an investment, instead of a roof over your head. I know people who would be fucked in their retirement if they house price falls, because they’ve gambled on their house price climbing enough to carry them through retirement.
I hope they get hurt though. Treating housing as an investment that needs to turn a profit, while people are living on the streets is fucking insane.
Declining birth rates and house prices dropping are both things the media love to make out are terrible things.
and guess who own’s the media’s editorial circle?
