Reality check. We are in ZERO danger of extinction. Our population could decline by 95%, and there would still be more humans alive than when Julius Caesar walked the Earth. Extinction would take millennia. But even then, there are built in safe guards that make declining below a certain population level impossible.
For a start, consider natural selection. societies are not homogeneous. Some groups reproduce at above replacement, some below. In the US for example, if we just assume birth rates remain the same for all groups indefinitely, never returning to an average replacement rate? In that unlikely scenario, extinction still will not happen. The Amish and the Mormons shall inherit the Earth.
And this can happen for cultural practices, not just religious groups. Maybe multi-generational households will become more common through natural selection. Maybe it will become the norm for people to have children right after high school, while still living with their parents. You only go to college and start your career after having some kids. Each generation pays to raise their own grandchildren, rather than their own children.
And even without cultural selection, eventually technological decline will prevent extinction. What technology your society can wield is a function of its population. As your population shrinks, your society’s technological complexity decreases. Eventually you can no longer manufacture mechanized farming equipment, so more people have to work the land again. And on traditional family farms, children are an economic resource that pay for themselves. So the birth rate recovers. And of course, reliable birth control is the product of industrial production. Eventually your population shrinks enough that you are no longer capable of running a birth control factory.
I don’t want to see the country become entirely Amish or to see us collapse back to 18th century levels of technology. But these are just the worst case scenarios. The absolute worse case scenario is that population declines by 90-95% and we regress technologically to some 18th century equivalent. Not a future I want to see, but it would hardly be the end of the world. Our present industrial civilization would be remembered as an unsustainable historical aberration, a temporary population boom brought on by the era of cheap hydrocarbons.
I do see your points about the resilience, but to assume total population collapse is IMPOSSIBLE is wrong. Many species on this planet have become extinct and we are not immune to that, locally nor globally. The amish may struggle when crop failure and extreme weather becomes more common place due to changing climates or pollution levels. They might make a bad year or two, but several bad years in a row could significantly reduce populations, possibly to the point of poor genetic diversity where after a few generations certain diseases or conditions wipe them out. They could also just be murdered by hungry stragglers of modern society armed with assault rifles that take their farms without knowing how to sustainably run them.
And also those amish will still have to be having kids despite how bleak their future looks which was the ultimate point of my comment. No kids = no humanity.
We already know from millennia of history that the human population can be maintained just fine at pre-industrial technology and population levels. Sure crop failures happened, but they don’t happen everywhere at the same time. Famines were historically very localized things.
And if we’re talking complete climate collapse? In that scenario, everything goes out the window. If that’s the scenario you want to plan for, then we should be doing everything we can to shrink our numbers as fast as humanly possible.
Humans are by far the most resilient species on this planet. We’ve learned to live everywhere from burning arid deserts to frozen arctic wastes. We will be the last species on this planet aside from some bacteria that go extinct.
We literally cannot be the last species aside from bacteria to go extinct because we eat other species. We rely on plants and often animals to provide our nutrition. We rely on pollinators for plants to grow fruits and vegetables. We were able to survive those harsh environments because they could provide for us. There is no living in the artic without the seals for example.
This is also the fastest our climate has ever changed. Yes the climate has changed in the past but never ar the rate it is now which could cause widespread species collapse, likely becoming earth’s largest extinction event to date. We have no idea the extents that current climate changes impacts will have on us in 100 years, let alone the fact its still getting worse as there is a significant lag time in terms of the effects.
Sure. But again, if you’re planning for climate collapse, it’s a complete uncertainty. Really the only thing that we can do now that would reliably increase our chances of survival is to shrink our current population peacefully as rapidly as possible. If you’re worried about climate collapse, you should be dancing with joy at a declining population. Fewer people means fewer emissions and less land taken up by human activities.
Reality check. We are in ZERO danger of extinction. Our population could decline by 95%, and there would still be more humans alive than when Julius Caesar walked the Earth. Extinction would take millennia. But even then, there are built in safe guards that make declining below a certain population level impossible.
For a start, consider natural selection. societies are not homogeneous. Some groups reproduce at above replacement, some below. In the US for example, if we just assume birth rates remain the same for all groups indefinitely, never returning to an average replacement rate? In that unlikely scenario, extinction still will not happen. The Amish and the Mormons shall inherit the Earth.
And this can happen for cultural practices, not just religious groups. Maybe multi-generational households will become more common through natural selection. Maybe it will become the norm for people to have children right after high school, while still living with their parents. You only go to college and start your career after having some kids. Each generation pays to raise their own grandchildren, rather than their own children.
And even without cultural selection, eventually technological decline will prevent extinction. What technology your society can wield is a function of its population. As your population shrinks, your society’s technological complexity decreases. Eventually you can no longer manufacture mechanized farming equipment, so more people have to work the land again. And on traditional family farms, children are an economic resource that pay for themselves. So the birth rate recovers. And of course, reliable birth control is the product of industrial production. Eventually your population shrinks enough that you are no longer capable of running a birth control factory.
I don’t want to see the country become entirely Amish or to see us collapse back to 18th century levels of technology. But these are just the worst case scenarios. The absolute worse case scenario is that population declines by 90-95% and we regress technologically to some 18th century equivalent. Not a future I want to see, but it would hardly be the end of the world. Our present industrial civilization would be remembered as an unsustainable historical aberration, a temporary population boom brought on by the era of cheap hydrocarbons.
I do see your points about the resilience, but to assume total population collapse is IMPOSSIBLE is wrong. Many species on this planet have become extinct and we are not immune to that, locally nor globally. The amish may struggle when crop failure and extreme weather becomes more common place due to changing climates or pollution levels. They might make a bad year or two, but several bad years in a row could significantly reduce populations, possibly to the point of poor genetic diversity where after a few generations certain diseases or conditions wipe them out. They could also just be murdered by hungry stragglers of modern society armed with assault rifles that take their farms without knowing how to sustainably run them.
And also those amish will still have to be having kids despite how bleak their future looks which was the ultimate point of my comment. No kids = no humanity.
We already know from millennia of history that the human population can be maintained just fine at pre-industrial technology and population levels. Sure crop failures happened, but they don’t happen everywhere at the same time. Famines were historically very localized things.
And if we’re talking complete climate collapse? In that scenario, everything goes out the window. If that’s the scenario you want to plan for, then we should be doing everything we can to shrink our numbers as fast as humanly possible.
Humans are by far the most resilient species on this planet. We’ve learned to live everywhere from burning arid deserts to frozen arctic wastes. We will be the last species on this planet aside from some bacteria that go extinct.
We literally cannot be the last species aside from bacteria to go extinct because we eat other species. We rely on plants and often animals to provide our nutrition. We rely on pollinators for plants to grow fruits and vegetables. We were able to survive those harsh environments because they could provide for us. There is no living in the artic without the seals for example.
This is also the fastest our climate has ever changed. Yes the climate has changed in the past but never ar the rate it is now which could cause widespread species collapse, likely becoming earth’s largest extinction event to date. We have no idea the extents that current climate changes impacts will have on us in 100 years, let alone the fact its still getting worse as there is a significant lag time in terms of the effects.
Sure. But again, if you’re planning for climate collapse, it’s a complete uncertainty. Really the only thing that we can do now that would reliably increase our chances of survival is to shrink our current population peacefully as rapidly as possible. If you’re worried about climate collapse, you should be dancing with joy at a declining population. Fewer people means fewer emissions and less land taken up by human activities.
We are already in an extinction event. Its not so much about if collapse but more about when and how much.