Four years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy is showing clear signs of structural exhaustion. The contours of a genuine economic endgame are coming into view for Russia. This is the finding of a new Kiel Report published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
  • Vergissmeinnicht@lemmy.caEnglish
    11·
    19 hours ago

    Do you know that if the percentage of GDP is above 0% it generally means that an economy is growing?

    Ok buddy, you have got the spirit, but you really need to tackle topics in your wheelhouse.

    The percentage of GDP being above 0% is meaningless. >0% of what?

    If the GDP growth rate is >0 then the economy is growing. That would be the amount of additional GDP in relation to existing GDP over a given timeframe or (ΔGDP/GDP)/Δt, usually over one year (Δt = 1 annum) or annualized for ease of comparison. Usually expressed as (ΔGDP/GDP)*100% where the Δt is implied.

    here is a more in depth explatation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth

    Once you’ve digested that, look at Stimulus and Quantitative Easing

    That will explain where the $300 billion of the NWF that weren’t frozen disappeared to. And why the Russian banks now experience such a dire liquidity crisis.

    And once you understand all of that you can put 2 and 2 together, and understand WHY the Russian economy had such low growth rates despite such a gargantuan stimulus effort.

    There is a massive hole in the economy, through which an enormous amount of money has been draining, which is the aforementioned sanctions. And Russia had to pump almost the entirety of their remaining NWF into the economy and also do an enormous amount of QE to keep the economy at a slightly elevated growth rate. Although since late last year that’s no longer working and the economy has been in a recession.

    And we’ve come full circle. (Or rather we will have come full circle once you’ve done your required reading to understand the subject matter)

    • Photonic@lemmy.worldEnglish
      11·
      7 hours ago

      LOL a lot of words to tell me that I am right.

      Nice copy pasting from ChatGPT too.

      You still can’t admit it huh? Stupidity and pride are a hell of a combination.

      Early in the war, the broad consensus was that the new sanctions would devastate the Russian economy. By some metrics, though, Russia’s economy has proved resilient to date.

      From the US government

      Following Russia’s full-fledged invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Western countries imposed unprecedented economic sanctions. Yet there is limited evidence that these measures have inflicted substantial economic pain on Russia, as the recent slowdown has largely reflected factors unrelated to sanctions.

      From the ESCP geopolitics institute

      And you still claim I don’t understand the topic…

      low growth

      So it was growth. Thank you. You could have been a lot shorter with that.

      And we’ve come full circle. (Or rather we will have come full circle once you’ve done your required reading to understand the subject matter)

      Full circle indeed. We’ve once again arrived at the point where it is completely obvious to anyone that I’m completely right, but you’re too obtuse to admit it. This entire discussion could have been avoided if you would just have reacted like a normal person who gets shown they’re wrong about something.

      If I you claim I don’t understand it, and I’m schooling you, where does that leave you?

      • Vergissmeinnicht@lemmy.caEnglish
        11·
        7 hours ago

        So you didn’t read, nor understand. Which shouldn’t be surprising given that having basic understanding of simple math can only mean copying from an LLM to you. You too can learn what the scary triangles mean, it’s not that difficult.

        Why did the $300 billion from the NWF plus whatever hundreds of billions of QE drain out of the economy?

        You keep ignoring that part for some odd reason.

        • Photonic@lemmy.worldEnglish
          11·
          6 hours ago

          I read, but the only thing I don’t understand is your stupidity and stubbornness.

          And sure, they used up their NWF. War is expensive. Who would have thought? Does that prove anything about sanctions?

          And a 300B+ (rubles not USD) expense is not the same as an economy being ruined. Especially when the GDP of that country is about 200 trillion rubles. And you’re trying to tell me I don’t understand how this works? Riiiiiight…

          And talk about ignoring:

          Early in the war, the broad consensus was that the new sanctions would devastate the Russian economy. By some metrics, though, Russia’s economy has proved resilient to date.

          From the US government

          Following Russia’s full-fledged invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Western countries imposed unprecedented economic sanctions. Yet there is limited evidence that these measures have inflicted substantial economic pain on Russia, as the recent slowdown has largely reflected factors unrelated to sanctions.

          From the ESCP geopolitics institute

          Why are you ignoring this?

          Edit to your edit: yes the “triangle” –which is actually not a triangle but a Greek capital letter delta, the more you know– symbol gave you away. A human commenting online would just spell out delta. So did the language that is completely different to your other comments.

          • Vergissmeinnicht@lemmy.caEnglish
            1·
            5 hours ago

            War is expensive. Who would have thought? Does that prove anything about sanctions?

            Yes, because war spending is still spending, and acts as a stimulus, increasing GDP. The amount of increased spending accounts for a bigger share of GDP than their GDP growth figures account for, so without this extra spending their GDP growth would be negative, due to sanctions.

            And a 300B+ (rubles not USD)

            You’re right, I had my numbers mixed up. The NWF spending accounted only for $70B (5.3T Rubles)

            It’s the gutting of the liquidity of Russia’s banks that accounted for the majority of the stimulus and was even higher than the $300B that I remembered, at $446B (36.6T Rubles) by early 2025 https://navigatingrussia.substack.com/p/russias-hidden-war-debt-full-report

            This plus the NWF spending accounts for 20% of GDP, or roughly 5% per year over 4 years. Russia’s growth numbers were significantly lower than that at between -2.1% and + 4.3%. So on average, without the stimulus spending not a single year since the beginning of the war would have been positive economic growth.

            A human commenting online would just spell out delta.

            Admit you don’t know calculus without telling me you don’t know calculus. You write the letter, you don’t spell it out.

            And the non-monetary consequences of sanctions, that you also keep ignoring. From your own source:

            Russia’s military has difficulty procuring key components

            Which is why the Iskander production figures are fluctuating for example, and are much lower than they would be without sanctions. To come back to your favourite weapon, the ballistic missile.

            • Photonic@lemmy.worldEnglish
              1·
              13 minutes ago

              Yes

              That’s funny, because:

              Yet there is **limited evidence** that these measures have **inflicted substantial economic pain** on Russia, as the recent slowdown has largely reflected factors **unrelated to sanctions**.

              And I never claimed the sanctions were having no effect at all. So another bad faith argument by you. The thing we are discussing is:

              My claim, (in other words) that:

              Early in the war, the broad consensus was that the new sanctions would devastate the Russian economy.

              But that (and again, I quote, not my exact words, but VERY similar):

              there is limited evidence that these measures have inflicted substantial economic pain on Russia, as the recent slowdown has largely reflected factors unrelated to sanctions.

              For which I have provided ample evidence. Against your “nah uh!” without any evidence to back it up.

              So you don’t have to try to make a case against something I never claimed, which is that the sanctions are not having any effect at all on the Russian economy. They just weren’t draining the economy in 2022, like Von der Leyen (and many others) claimed.

              You write the letter, you don’t spell it out.

              Yeah in a work document, paper or math assignment, nobody does in a comment online with some other guy. Also the entire language was completely different from the rest of your comments. It was clear it was LLM output. Stop embarrassing yourself.