Four years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy is showing clear signs of structural exhaustion. The contours of a genuine economic endgame are coming into view for Russia. This is the finding of a new Kiel Report published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
Okay, I didn’t want to ask anymore questions because I’m trying to to be nice.
But…
Do you know what an economy is?
And
Do you know what GDP is?
And
Do you know that if the percentage of GDP is above 0% it generally means that an economy is growing?
And
Do you know that draining and growing are opposites?
Some things you don’t think, some you just know.
Ok buddy, you have got the spirit, but you really need to tackle topics in your wheelhouse.
The percentage of GDP being above 0% is meaningless. >0% of what?
If the GDP growth rate is >0 then the economy is growing. That would be the amount of additional GDP in relation to existing GDP over a given timeframe or (ΔGDP/GDP)/Δt, usually over one year (Δt = 1 annum) or annualized for ease of comparison. Usually expressed as (ΔGDP/GDP)*100% where the Δt is implied.
here is a more in depth explatation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth
Once you’ve digested that, look at Stimulus and Quantitative Easing
That will explain where the $300 billion of the NWF that weren’t frozen disappeared to. And why the Russian banks now experience such a dire liquidity crisis.
And once you understand all of that you can put 2 and 2 together, and understand WHY the Russian economy had such low growth rates despite such a gargantuan stimulus effort.
There is a massive hole in the economy, through which an enormous amount of money has been draining, which is the aforementioned sanctions. And Russia had to pump almost the entirety of their remaining NWF into the economy and also do an enormous amount of QE to keep the economy at a slightly elevated growth rate. Although since late last year that’s no longer working and the economy has been in a recession.
And we’ve come full circle. (Or rather we will have come full circle once you’ve done your required reading to understand the subject matter)
LOL a lot of words to tell me that I am right.
Nice copy pasting from ChatGPT too.
You still can’t admit it huh? Stupidity and pride are a hell of a combination.
From the US government
From the ESCP geopolitics institute
And you still claim I don’t understand the topic…
So it was growth. Thank you. You could have been a lot shorter with that.
Full circle indeed. We’ve once again arrived at the point where it is completely obvious to anyone that I’m completely right, but you’re too obtuse to admit it. This entire discussion could have been avoided if you would just have reacted like a normal person who gets shown they’re wrong about something.
If I you claim I don’t understand it, and I’m schooling you, where does that leave you?
So you didn’t read, nor understand. Which shouldn’t be surprising given that having basic understanding of simple math can only mean copying from an LLM to you. You too can learn what the scary triangles mean, it’s not that difficult.
Why did the $300 billion from the NWF plus whatever hundreds of billions of QE drain out of the economy?
You keep ignoring that part for some odd reason.
I read, but the only thing I don’t understand is your stupidity and stubbornness.
And sure, they used up their NWF. War is expensive. Who would have thought? Does that prove anything about sanctions?
And a 300B+ (rubles not USD) expense is not the same as an economy being ruined. Especially when the GDP of that country is about 200 trillion rubles. And you’re trying to tell me I don’t understand how this works? Riiiiiight…
And talk about ignoring:
From the US government
From the ESCP geopolitics institute
Why are you ignoring this?
Edit to your edit: yes the “triangle” –which is actually not a triangle but a Greek capital letter delta, the more you know– symbol gave you away. A human commenting online would just spell out delta. So did the language that is completely different to your other comments.
Yes, because war spending is still spending, and acts as a stimulus, increasing GDP. The amount of increased spending accounts for a bigger share of GDP than their GDP growth figures account for, so without this extra spending their GDP growth would be negative, due to sanctions.
You’re right, I had my numbers mixed up. The NWF spending accounted only for $70B (5.3T Rubles)
It’s the gutting of the liquidity of Russia’s banks that accounted for the majority of the stimulus and was even higher than the $300B that I remembered, at $446B (36.6T Rubles) by early 2025 https://navigatingrussia.substack.com/p/russias-hidden-war-debt-full-report
This plus the NWF spending accounts for 20% of GDP, or roughly 5% per year over 4 years. Russia’s growth numbers were significantly lower than that at between -2.1% and + 4.3%. So on average, without the stimulus spending not a single year since the beginning of the war would have been positive economic growth.
Admit you don’t know calculus without telling me you don’t know calculus. You write the letter, you don’t spell it out.
And the non-monetary consequences of sanctions, that you also keep ignoring. From your own source:
Which is why the Iskander production figures are fluctuating for example, and are much lower than they would be without sanctions. To come back to your favourite weapon, the ballistic missile.