Four years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy is showing clear signs of structural exhaustion. The contours of a genuine economic endgame are coming into view for Russia. This is the finding of a new Kiel Report published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
Since you’re still on about this, yes, I admit I was wrong about this.
I assumed you were informed on the subject matter and were “just asking questions” to push an agenda.
But turns out you were trying to employ the Socratic method. Which requires a deep understanding of the subject matter, which of course you lack. You’re just an idiot who doesn’t understand how economies work and who takes clickbait headlines as fact.
Me accusing you of “just asking questions” was giving you orders of magnitude more credit than you deserve.
You’re still wrong.
I am informed. You are not. That was immediately obvious due to your dumb question, which is why I started probing you.
And nice “no u”. But you keep forgetting you haven’t made a single valid point in this entire discussion.
You can’t admit it and you’re just too arrogant for your own intelligence. Donald fucking Trump would have made a better discussion partner. I have become dumber with every comment you’ve made.
reading clickbait headlines isn’t being informed.
You wouldn’t notice one of it hit you in the face. Except maybe if it came with a clickbait headline.
If you think the official title of a report by the Kiel Institute is a clickbait headline you really have bigger fish to fry than this discussion.
You’re really not capable of independent thought are you? Just parroting whatever you heard, like for example:
See, these are examples of similar statements. Just like the ones I showed you. Putting on a sour face and going “nah uh! You’re stupid!” won’t change that.
But as I said before: good talk my man! Good to see you haven’t lost your entertainment value. Is circus clown a job you could see yourself doing? I bet you’d be great!
So you base your arguments on a quote of Von der Leyen, articles by business Insider and CNN and whatnot, neither of which support your dumbass take. But suddenly they’re not good enough, because you’ve been called out on your bullshit, and you reference a mysterious previous headline by the Kiel institute that you never even linked?
please do link the Kiel institute articles from the past that have non clickbait headlines that show that we’ve been “hearing this constantly since 2022”
Go sue me for copyright infringement, since you seem to have come up with that phrase all by yourself and totally didn’t steal it
First, I help you see why Von der Leyen’s quote is nonsense (the third package was indeed in fact, not draining the economy, since 17 more were needed after that). And the obviously ultimate goal of the sanctions, aka ending the war is still not in sight…
or do you really think just making things a little more shitty for ordinary Russians while the war continues to take Ukrainian lives is the goal? (Really, answer this question, I have answered yours).
I said I have seen things like this said before, and I show you literally multiple times when these things have been said before. Whether that’s an official report or a news article is irrelevant. They have been said before in a public place.
And the point is: I don’t believe them. I don’t believe the clickbait titles. That’s the entire fucking point, you dumbass. I literally said I’ll believe it when I see it. And in your head you have made that into that I somehow believe the clickbait? You’re even dumber than I thought.
And I never said it was the Kiel Institute who said such things in the past. I was obviously talking about this one. How’s that flying pink elephant doing up there?
Ok, let’s start from the very very beginning.
“are draining” is in the present progressive. It denotes an action in progress, not a completed action. Meaning the sanctions were in the process of draining the economy. Von der Leyen’s claim was not that the draining had completed but that it was in progress.
next is your complete lack of understanding of how sanctions work.
The very first sanctions package was immediately called “first sanctions package” at the time
The understanding, from the very first sanctions package, was that this would be a continuous process, with sanctions package after sanctions package, not a one and done deal that then needs to haphazardly be amended as you seem to think.
Sanctions need to be amended as the economic reality shifts and loopholes need to be plugged as the target of sanctions finds ways to evade them.
The 17 packages after the third were always going to happen because that is fundamentally how sanctions work.
And let’s look at numbers. European sanctions have reduced Russian fossil fuel export revenues by about $300-500 million per day. Not sure how you would describe this, other than “draining the economy”. And this does not include any other sanctions affecting other parts of the economy.
In your favourite metric, ballistic missiles, that is worth about 750-1000 Iskanders per day given the $400-500k unit production cost. Now of course money isn’t the biggest limiting factor in Russia’s ability to manufacture those, it’s largely parts availability that leads to big fluctuations in production quantities. Parts availabilities, which, surprise, are limited due to sanctions.
Strawman. “draining the economy” is not about making things a little more shitty for ordinary Russians. It’s about reducing Russia’s ability to finance the war, which takes time considering Russia had a $600 billion war chest, half of which is frozen in mostly European banks, thanks to the sanctions, and the other half is now, thanks to the sanctions, that were draining the economy, mostly drained. And it is about reducing Russia’s ability to source industrial machines and components to reduce their ability to manufacture weapons, like your favourite one, the ballistic missile. Where production quantities, as mentioned above, are fluctuating due to sanctions.
As I have stated before, it was constantly repeated all the way back in 2022 that sanctions would not defeat Russia on their own, and certainly not immediately, and would take years. The point was, from the very beginning, to make it increasingly difficult for Russia to finance the war and to produce weapons, so Ukraine could gain the upper hand, which is now manifesting on the battlefield, after years, as predicted.
People like you were told in at the very start in 2022 that the real world doesn’t work like TikTok instant gratification, and here you are more than 4 years later still not having gotten the point.
Indeed present progressive.
As in the sanctions that we have applied in the present are working to progressively drain the economy.
If the three sanctions packages were already draining the economy why oh why did she need 17 more? She didn’t say will be draining after we implement 17 more. If you say “are draining” you’re talking about what you have already done to set a process in motion and not what you’re planning to do. How hard is it? You really keep swinging and missing.
And if you had actually read this article from 2024, which we talked about extensively, you would have known that the Russian economy was in fact not being drained at all.
It also has nothing to do with the fact that I don’t understand how sanctions work. Everyone knows that loopholes have to be closed. I don’t need a mansplainy “explanation” of something that is completely obvious.
For the umpteenth time, that was not the three sanctions packages. Learn the meaning of the word “are”.
Maybe quote the entire sentence if you’re gonna cry strawman. Now you’ve created one of your own.
Just let the war keep festering then for longer? You still can’t answer the question because you know you’re wrong.
Dumbass still doesn’t understand what “I’ll believe it when I see it” means… Maybe look up a phrase before you start commenting if you don’t understand it? What I’m saying is the opposite of instant gratification, you dunce. And I’ve never been on TikTok.
1 hole in a bucket drains the bucket 3 drain it faster, so why do you need 17 more? because holes can be plugged and 20 drain it faster than 3. Are you really this fucking stupid?