I don’t really disagree with that, but much of that has actually been happening for some time. Many small companies have closed, but Putin has ordered banks to not declare companies bankrupt. which is why we haven’t seen the big bankruptcies yet, and we haven’t seen the unemployment yet. Regarding price fluctuations we have also already seen inflation increase despite high national bank interest rates that have helped keep it down. But it’s estimated prices in Russia have increased by about 50% since Russia started the war 4½ year ago. There is also not social unrest yet, but there is frequent fighting in the lines to get fuel.
So almost everything you expect to see is happening. And some of it has already happened for a while. A collapse is not a sudden thing, especially for a country as big as Russia.
It’s a gradual thing that happens over time, where things continue to get worse. And they’ve been getting worse in Russia for a couple of years, but now it’s beginning to accelerate really fast.
Putin and Russia have been very good at kicking the can down the road, but now it’s many cans, and the road is pretty steep now, so they can’t really kick them much further.
I bet the point where you would call it clearly a collapse too is very close. Many Russians are comparing conditions now with the collapse of the Soviet Union, and people are talking outright against Putin, despite you can go to prison for that, and going to prison can easily be a death sentence.