Four years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy is showing clear signs of structural exhaustion. The contours of a genuine economic endgame are coming into view for Russia. This is the finding of a new Kiel Report published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
Fair enough, perhaps I was wrong about thinking no collapse will happen soon. Time will tell. I suppose it could happen if the energy sector collapses, it will drag everything along with it, no help from China can stop that I think.
Yes absolutely, without energy everything collapses very quickly.
In Crimea they have extreme fuel shortage, and private people can’t buy fuel at all.
Most places are without electricity, and have maybe 1-2 hours electricity per day. The lack of electricity also has the result that they have no water, because there is no energy to pump the water.
Obviously you can’t store fresh food either, so everything that doesn’t have long shelf life rots in days.
And food in shops is rationed.
In Crimea there is no doubt that basically everything has collapsed, but Crimea is just about 2 mil people, not a lot compared to the 140 million of all of Russia. But what has already happened to Crimea is happening even to Moscow now, but it takes more time, because what is happening in Moscow is a result of what is happening in Russia in general.
Ukraine claims they have taken out more than 40% of Russia’s oil refining capacity. And logistics/transports are already collapsing, when that collapses everything else will follow.