Negotiations between the US and Iran in Switzerland were cancelled after clashes between Israel and Hezbollah - before a renewed ceasefire was announced in Lebanon
It’s between the other two options. Either Trump commits to a full invasion, or he commits to a fight with AIPAC.
I’m about a 40/60 split between those right now. Theoretically Israel are backing down given their agreement to a ceasefire with Hezbollah today, but a) that doesn’t mean they won’t come for blood in the midterms, and b) there’s a good chance they’re playing nice until they can create some kind of false flag attack from Hezbollah as a pretext to resume hostilities and shit-can the deal.
Not the OP, but I think this issue will continue to rise in temperature until it is more heavily influential on US domestic politics. I believe at some point, support of Israel on these recent events will become politically suicidal, and slowly the compromised politicians rendered unable to break with Israel will get drummed out of office by primary or normal election.
Then, US will officially drop support and the math in the middle east gets a lot less complex for them.
This would take many years. I don’t think Trump or Lebanon can wait that long, he seams pretty desperate. We already know he’s unable to pressure Israel so his only option is to pressure Iran by doing something stupid. I really home Iran will take the huge win they already got and pass on Lebanon for now. The other options are pretty terrible for everyone.
I just dont see any useful results before then. For practically my whole life, the situation in the Middle-east has been unstable. It seems to me that the reason for this is because Israel has continually agitated its neighbors from behind a metaphorical force field provided by their larger international allies. The “force field” seems completely unearned, and is the result of diabolical lobbying/bribery and blackmail of powerful foreign politicians in the USA and elsewhere.
Until the circumstances change, I dont see a ton of reason to expect the conditions to, either. Moves will be made as always, but I expect more of this ineffectual war-play: retreat from hill today, re-take same hill tomorrow, repeat forever. All the while the waste and corruption in the military operations continue to flow.
I too hope for a return to prosperity for the Iranian people that I have seen from the 1970s and before, but I dont see that happening until the unconditional military pact with Israel starts getting some conditions.
So what do you think will happen? The strait is closed permanently?
It’s between the other two options. Either Trump commits to a full invasion, or he commits to a fight with AIPAC.
I’m about a 40/60 split between those right now. Theoretically Israel are backing down given their agreement to a ceasefire with Hezbollah today, but a) that doesn’t mean they won’t come for blood in the midterms, and b) there’s a good chance they’re playing nice until they can create some kind of false flag attack from Hezbollah as a pretext to resume hostilities and shit-can the deal.
Not the OP, but I think this issue will continue to rise in temperature until it is more heavily influential on US domestic politics. I believe at some point, support of Israel on these recent events will become politically suicidal, and slowly the compromised politicians rendered unable to break with Israel will get drummed out of office by primary or normal election.
Then, US will officially drop support and the math in the middle east gets a lot less complex for them.
This would take many years. I don’t think Trump or Lebanon can wait that long, he seams pretty desperate. We already know he’s unable to pressure Israel so his only option is to pressure Iran by doing something stupid. I really home Iran will take the huge win they already got and pass on Lebanon for now. The other options are pretty terrible for everyone.
I just dont see any useful results before then. For practically my whole life, the situation in the Middle-east has been unstable. It seems to me that the reason for this is because Israel has continually agitated its neighbors from behind a metaphorical force field provided by their larger international allies. The “force field” seems completely unearned, and is the result of diabolical lobbying/bribery and blackmail of powerful foreign politicians in the USA and elsewhere.
Until the circumstances change, I dont see a ton of reason to expect the conditions to, either. Moves will be made as always, but I expect more of this ineffectual war-play: retreat from hill today, re-take same hill tomorrow, repeat forever. All the while the waste and corruption in the military operations continue to flow.
I too hope for a return to prosperity for the Iranian people that I have seen from the 1970s and before, but I dont see that happening until the unconditional military pact with Israel starts getting some conditions.