Three parts of Iran’s 10-point ceasefire proposal have been violated, Ghalibaf said. The violations are Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon, the entry of a drone into Iranian airspace, and the denial of the Islamic Republic’s right to enrich uranium, he said.
Consequences?
The ceasefire announcement was market manipulation. Everything this administration does is rooted in making themselves and their friends richer.
How are you so stupid you end up coming out being the bad guy against IRAN 🤦🏻
The USA has always been THE bad guy, it just used to have better marketing and propaganda.
Siding with Israel doesn’t help 🤣
Trump is completely crazy.
Remember when we had a 25th Amendment? Good times.
You got jack shit. So much of it in fact you guys keep throwing it at everyone around you
Uh oh.
Also, I found some interesting trackers:
https://www.hormuztracker.com/
https://www.shiptraffic.net/2001/04/hormuz-strait-ship-traffic.html
No ships going through yet. And one had a very interesting nugget of info on insurance:
Insurance withdrawal makes transit commercially unviable independent of physical conditions. Even if the security situation improves tomorrow, insurers take weeks to reinstate coverage. Ships cannot sail without P&I cover — ports won’t accept them, banks won’t finance cargo, charterers won’t book them. Three weeks in, no insurer has shown willingness to reinstate. This is why the disruption will persist well beyond any resolution.
This is bullshit. There is a combination of excess and premium that any insurer would accept.
Or the USA could provide/pay the insurance. Trump wants the strait open, he can backstop the insurance.
They could, but will they?
If there’s a will, there’s a way. That does require people to work in good faith though.
And didn’t Iran also mine the strait?
Apparently Iran has a map of safe routes that they give out to ships paying their transit fee.
add on top of that:
- time for Iran to administrate passage
- time for each boat to enter/exit under security
- reduced production rates due to full tanks or damaged infrastructure
- time for countries to raise sovereign capital (selling bonds, gold and currency reserves) to meet price increases
estimates are a reduction of 15-25% of global supply and 3-5 years to recover IF the straight is opened immediately and stays open. You can’t print oil ppl. The price per barrel will need to be high enough to squash 15-25% of global demand. We could see $300-350+ per barrel.
We need to see oil prices high enough to squash 95-100% of global demand.
Humans can adapt. We have renewable energy. We’ve had 6 years since covid to build a more resilient, sustainable infrastructure. We didn’t. The world went right back to burning fossil fuels, and then some, and have only accelerated since.
Maybe we need another global supply chain breakdown to force us to make up for lost time. Cause we needed to stop burning fossil fuels a decade ago.
I bet we’ll start seeing a lot more electric cars on the road. Too bad so many manufacturers shut down their production!
Great find, thanks for sharing.
Here is another good one: https://www.ishormuzopenyet.com/
No wonder the Trump administration didn’t want to release the ceasefire conditions.
The U.S. and Iran also appear at loggerheads over how traffic through the Strait of Hormuz should be managed.
Wow, CNBC, ya don’t say
I mean yeah blatantly not even a question.
More reporting on this. Whole article is short and worth a read, but:
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/08/lebanon-attacks-israel-iran-ceasfire
The U.S. official said the White House is not currently concerned that the situation in Lebanon would cause the ceasefire with Iran to collapse.
Hezbollah said it had a right to respond to Israeli’s attack.
Three parts of Iran’s 10-point ceasefire proposal have been violated, Ghalibaf said. The violations are Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon, the entry of a drone into Iranian airspace, and the denial of the Islamic Republic’s right to enrich uranium, he said.
As far as I’m aware, the ceasefire was to negotiate the terms to end the war, which was what the 10-point plan was a part of - nobody has agreed to anything yet beyond a cessation of hostilities pending the reopening of the straight. This is difficult to follow, because Iran’s own reporting has been incredibly inconsistent about the contents of that plan and what they are saying the ceasefire actually entails, and to complicate it further the US/Israel have said barely anything about the negotiations or terms of the ceasefire (including as far as I am aware listing any terms beyond “reopening of the straight”.)
I can’t find any reports of the US or Israel attacking Iran directly during this ceasefire, though - the only mention in the article of a direct slight against Iran is that a drone may have violated Iranian airspace - so… there’s that? It sounds like the US still hasn’t started blowing Iran up again, which is… god…
IDK. To my armchair-geopoliticing-ass, this feels like Iran attempting to force the idea that the US/Israel agreed to their 10-point plan as terms of the ceasefire - something which seems extremely unlikely given that the terms (depending on the source) include “allowing Iranian nuclear enrichment” which seems like something that would be negotiated at a much later part of the process. Which is weird because they already have the whole “Israel still blowing up lebanon” thing to justify this.
can’t find any reports of the US or Israel attacking Iran directly during this ceasefire,
I think it was Isreal stops attacking Lebanon
Yeah, sorry if that was unclear - I was just saying I don’t think they’ve attacked Iran directly during the ceasefire, Israel attacking lebanon is separate to that point.
edit: I have no idea why this is contentious?
Because it’s the same war. Iran officially recognizes Israel’s war of aggression across the region as the same that it is currently fighting, and part of the explicit ceasefire agreement (no one corrected you but the 10 points ceasefire WAS this one and why Iran agreed to the ceasefire they twice denied without these stipulations) was for Israel to stop invading and expanding their territory into Lebanon.
Israel violated this agreement, and as Israel and the US are essentially one entity from the view point of anyone not in Israel or the US, the US thus violated the ceasefire.
Iran was not begging for a ceasefire, Trump was. Iran has stated repeatedly it is ready to escalate or continue on as long as necessary until its demands are met. There is no non-nuclear action the US can take to end this war without meeting Iran’s demands; and pakistan has already issued threats of nuclear retaliation should nukes be used by Israel or the US, so that’s off the table.
I’m not sure why it wouldn’t be the same war - I was remarking that the US and Israel appear to have stopped directly striking Iran, nothing beyond that. In no way am I saying that attacking lebanon isn’t a part of the same war, or wasn’t a violation of the ceasefire.
the 10 points ceasefire WAS this one
Where are you seeing this? I have found nowhere besides some reports (like this one) purporting to quote Iranian state media that claims all sides agreed to those terms - but even trump’s announcement presented the ‘10-point plan’ as the basis for future negotiations, not the terms of the ceasefire, which agrees with this statement from Iran:
So I am very curious where you heard that this was the case.
Yeah, the reporting on all of this has been terrible. Iran released an inconsistent (different demands on the English terms) list of demands to end the war, but everyone is acting like the US accepted the list by agreeing to a temporary ceasefire.
I don’t think anybody is actually talking to anybody at this point. They’re playing telephone with the media.
Pretty much. It would be nice to know if negotiations had even begun before they fell apart, though I guess I don’t think it would particularly change anything.
At this point, I have to become an accelerationist. The only way MAGA Americans (about 25% of voters) will wake up is if they are negatively personally affected in serious ways, and the only way to do that is serious war issues.
The 25% will likely never wake up. It’s the 13% or so who enable the 25% who can actually be “flipped”
If the guy in the header photo didn’t at some point say “Suck it, Trebek”, I’ll be very disappointed.
