and i told you before that it’s officers (pilots are generally officers) that will be doing aerial bombing, and because large force on ground is prerequisite for situations you’re describing, it’s not going to happen

i mean that saudis were somewhat restrained about airstrikes, at least publicly, but this action would cause them to not be so. even if they tried, there are extra air defences dragged to saudi for exactly this purpose; every cargo flight and every extra warship makes odds worse for iran, as more missiles would be intercepted, but even if nobody dies, shooting missiles would have diplomatic consequences. another action that would result in rising oil prices would be iran shooting ships in strait of hormuz, but this would also close access to their own single large oil terminal, and there are american warships nearby anyway, so it’s perhaps unwise decision to make today

at this point, i think that decision to strike already has been made, and they’re just stalling so that more metal can come from across the atlantic. dragging an aircraft carrier out there is not done for no reason, and the second one they want to put out there would need to have some of pre-deployment training shortened and done on the way, which is unusual and avoided because there were accidents that this training was supposed to mitigate

we’ll see in a month tops

i don’t think it would go the way you think it would go

right, let’s see… they propped up unpopular (some 70% iranians oppose islamic republic rule, source), authoritarian, religious minority rule (only 32% iranians reported to be shia in 2020 survey, so before 2022 protests, it might be even less today), that was in a constant state of crisis and when president nho dinh diem got couped and killed, people danced on the streets (iranians burned down mosques and statue of soleimani during january protests). yeah, maybe iran is like vietnam after all, to be more specific like south vietnam during buddhist crisis

i don’t think that regular iranian population, that protested every year in almost decade and these protests were all met with crackdowns, mostly deadly, would like to see islamic republic rule to continue. neither i have heard anything about ground invasion, so all you’ve got out there is couple of pilots (officers) in the air and some more on ships

except irgc and friends, nobody’s sticking out their neck for theocracy and ayatollah, definitely not majority of iranian population (survey from 2024, and this is before irgc did 4 srebrenicas), and i’m not even sure about allegiances of regular military (artesh, not irgc. i heard that irgc disarmed artesh just before january crackdown, not very sure about it). let alone handful of pilots and marine officers that would conduct bombardment

have you? vietnam was backed by soviet union and china when these states were at peak performance, and north vietnamese government was genuinely popular. iran today is not it, who’s gonna stand up for them, fucking north korea? mullah’s regime doesn’t seem to be popular either https://gamaan.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/GAMAAN-Iran-Religion-Survey-2020-English.pdf also iranian air defences were already shown to be unable of touching american aircraft last year, and nobody’s talking about ground invasion

They could state it’s Saudi right in the title

it’s easier for dear leader to blame americans for any and all problems (not an exaggeration, first example i found https://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2009/11/02/Irans-IRGC-blames-US-for-problems/32571257206055/ it was stated on iranian state media verbatim recently, i’ll add it when i find it) than to accept responsibility for their oppression, corruption and inefficient governance.

yeah mate nixon personally descended from heli to brainwash khomeini into making basij a thing. every irgc grifter is a mossad agent actually. i bet that cia shat their pants too

i guess they just found some spare attention to give for people whose every fifth sentence is “death to america”

americans export oil it’s not 70s anymore

Fuck this clickbait title. It’s no secret that no tears will be shed in Riyadh if something would happen to islamic republic leadership, and Saudis made this known recently https://www.axios.com/2026/01/31/saudi-us-strike-iran-kbs-trump

if you believed that “no saudi land or airspace will be used to attack Iran” was genuine i have a brigde to sell you

Yes. You would get tracked by your phone

this is just a really extravagant heater, physics forbids antenna this small to have good radiation resistance. for your contrived below noise communications scheme, you need more bandwidth that is physically possible on hf, yet you choose antenna design that is even less wideband than regular dipole. 40m of wire is for 80m band, which is usable more often in this configuration, ignoring everything else

As for throughput: a channel that is 9 KHz wide is supposed to transfer 9.6 kbit / s

5500kbps in extremely favourable conditions is your peak attainable speed, bandwiths in normal radios are narrower

A reasonable detection avoidance technique might be broadcasting from a depressed location or an urban canyon with tall ground clutter

if you don’t want anyone to hear you

launch your guerilla transmitter on a free flight balloon, and will have plentiful line of sight.

with what power source? better study for and get your license, start using radio and stop embarrassing yourself

you super stealthy nvis signal might not be noticed by anyone, including intended recipient, but your antenna farm made form 40m long wires certainly will

yes i know how spread spectrum schemes work, but this is not really practical or relevant here

for spread spectrum things to work you need some wide bandwidth, this works great for microwaves where you can spread your 90GHz band signal so that it covers 5GHz, you can’t have a signal centered on 5MHz that is 5GHz wide; HF is relevant because while microwaves work with this microwaves are line of sight only and most people’s line of sight still terminates in their own country. if you live on a lone hill next to border good for you, but the rest would need to use HF to get out, and there’s simply not that much bandwidth available in the first place, which would make any scheme like this extremely slow if at all viable. and you can still jam it

i don’t assume that satellite repeaters would be a viable option because satellite, or any other receiving party for that matter, would need to be aware of modulation scheme to receive it in the first place, so it only works if your international contacts are pre-arranged, and even then you need radio that has much larger bandwidth that is usually available. yapping on LSB or narrow digimodes will get you heard within continental range, but also it will get you noticed, but if you hide from your adversary you also hide from everyone else not in the know. and even then, you can still get noticed, because it’s under noise level only at some distance from you

also some of these schemes require precise time to be known, and if you have gps jammed you’ll get extra problems from that

ranked competitive version is called foxhunting and even kid can do it

you’re also a shining beacon every second you transmit and even states with moderate capabilities record their radio spectrum 24/7 even during peacetime

agree on uncensorable but keep in mind ham radio is antiprivate by design - every time you say your callsign you sign off

substack is not news

trump rn