There’s a few of tracks leading to this actually. You got cracks in old alliances forming, a mostly failed attempt at revanchism from Russia and the USA getting it’s fingers stuck in a mouse trap, and many many more geopolitical factors that heighten tension between states. Then on another track, you have a worsening climate situation that is MUCH more serious than most western leaders are daring to admit, this ties back to the first as states will begin to take drastic efforts to control worsening conditions. Finally there has been a technological shift in a variety of ways, drones of course. Along that same vein, China has quietly been catching up to the US in terms of military tech, this isn’t as flashy but it is monumentous.

Haha yeah, rome, the famously peaceful and stable state that was dominated by a cruel slave owning elite. That is where we should be taking our lessons from.