You are presenting something as truth that is far from clear. Russia very much has the ambition to conquer the Baltics. Are they stupid and going for total war? Of course not. They play on many fronts, a main one is propaganda and help their people in the EU (Le Oen, AfD, FPÖ etc) get into power, let the US regime functionally betray NATO (no need to actually leave it) and then do some semi hybrid raoid attack to create facts.