It’s not biological evolution but social evolution that’ll happen. Right now you have immigrants coming from a family with 7 siblings. They move to a Western country. The second generation immigrant will be at the same 1.x reproduction number as the rest of that country. It’s the environment, the social arrangement.
It means that the countries supporting of children in the long term will survive and pressure cooker ones with very child unfriendly traditions and policies will slowly fade away.
I have to say, this feels like a take that I’d like to see some evidence for. Because often those immigrants are coming from countries with essentially no social safety net and very regressive social customs. They have 7 kids because the mom was raised in a tight knit religious community where it was made very clear that her worth as a person was dependent on birthing and raising many children, and she carried that belief into adulthood. When these nations gain access to birth control, better education and autonomy for women, and more knowledge of the outside world, birth rates drop.
On the other hand, I have yet to hear of any developed nation successfully reversing declining birth rates via social welfare programs. I’m not saying that a properly executed program couldn’t work - I’m just saying I haven’t seen one yet.
If anything, based on the evidence I can see, we should expect the exact opposite effect. Welfare states will need to import population from more virile regressive states
The only real counterexample at the moment is Israel. It’s maybe not the most promising example for the future but they do have the culture and policies in a modern nation that promotes more children.
It’s not biological evolution but social evolution that’ll happen. Right now you have immigrants coming from a family with 7 siblings. They move to a Western country. The second generation immigrant will be at the same 1.x reproduction number as the rest of that country. It’s the environment, the social arrangement.
It means that the countries supporting of children in the long term will survive and pressure cooker ones with very child unfriendly traditions and policies will slowly fade away.
I have to say, this feels like a take that I’d like to see some evidence for. Because often those immigrants are coming from countries with essentially no social safety net and very regressive social customs. They have 7 kids because the mom was raised in a tight knit religious community where it was made very clear that her worth as a person was dependent on birthing and raising many children, and she carried that belief into adulthood. When these nations gain access to birth control, better education and autonomy for women, and more knowledge of the outside world, birth rates drop.
On the other hand, I have yet to hear of any developed nation successfully reversing declining birth rates via social welfare programs. I’m not saying that a properly executed program couldn’t work - I’m just saying I haven’t seen one yet.
If anything, based on the evidence I can see, we should expect the exact opposite effect. Welfare states will need to import population from more virile regressive states
The only real counterexample at the moment is Israel. It’s maybe not the most promising example for the future but they do have the culture and policies in a modern nation that promotes more children.