Donald Trump threatens to attack Iran “hard” tonight, hours after saying he thinks the US-Iran ceasefire is “over”. Trump earlier said of the Iranian leadership: “I don’t want to deal with them anymore, they’re scum. They’re sick people, they’re led by sick people”.
But how wild that confrontation realistically materialize?
A sternly worded letter? That has been so effective in the past.
Punitive tariffs? Trump administration would love an excuse to levy retaliatory tariffs. Remember the nature of the administration is isolationist.
Sanctions? Maybe you get some more pressure, but again the administration trends towards isolationist authoritarian, and has already openly said they didn’t care about the economic problems the people have compared to Iran.
Military confrontation? There no way any of those parties stick their neck out that much for Iran. Similar story for any clandestine operation to take out the administration.
The economic harm I suppose could inspire an assassination attempt by folks resourceful enough to make it happen… But it is a longshot.
Hopefully, Trump would be pressured to accept a peace deal between Europe, China, and Russia especially if countries such as Pakistan, India, and Saudi Arabia agree with the deal. If Trump rejects the deal, it might lead to military confrontation because Europe, China, and Russia would be obligated by the peace deal to protect Iran from attack. If these countries aren’t willing to protect Iran, then there can be no peace deal and the war will continue. Europe cannot cry and say it is powerless to affect the war in Iran. It can but just isn’t willing to.