The S-400 is still with Turkey but some ideas are being floated around on what to do with it because it’s being cited as a legal impediment for getting Turkey back in on the F-35. Russia as you say is very happy to buy it back because their air defenses aren’t doing so hot. Turkey may not want to do that though because they favor Ukraine over Russia politically - an expansionist Russia is really bad news for Turkey. Another option is to sell it to some other party which would be better for Ukraine. However, they would need Russia to sign off on such a sale and that could present some difficulties. If they just unilaterally sell without Russia’s approval then that makes them look far less reliable to follow the terms in arms deals which could block them from getting nicer arms or make them far more expensive to buy upfront to price in such risks.
Consider- Trump no longer cares about S400 getting a good look at F35 since he’s compromised AND he’s got his fancy new F-47 (on paper, all that matters to trump)
Trump definitely doesn’t care. That said, this can potentially present problems with Congress because there are many congressmen on the Republican side who would be split between their political instincts for deferring to Trump who wants this to happen and for backing Israel which absolutely does not. There’s a bipartisan letter written against this from people from people in like the Hellenic Israel Alliance Caucus and so on.
Since it seems like the Turkish side is sending out communications that they’re open to getting rid of it and that would make things politically easier in DC I would think it more likely than not that the S-400 moves onto somewhere else. I hardly think the challenge in Congress is insurmountable in the face of Trump’s power if Turkey were to absolutely refuse to get rid of the S-400 but it’s not even being used so I don’t see why Turkey would not take the chance to offload a liability, look reasonable and buy brownie points for keeing the Trump admin’s life simple.
The S-400 is still with Turkey but some ideas are being floated around on what to do with it because it’s being cited as a legal impediment for getting Turkey back in on the F-35. Russia as you say is very happy to buy it back because their air defenses aren’t doing so hot. Turkey may not want to do that though because they favor Ukraine over Russia politically - an expansionist Russia is really bad news for Turkey. Another option is to sell it to some other party which would be better for Ukraine. However, they would need Russia to sign off on such a sale and that could present some difficulties. If they just unilaterally sell without Russia’s approval then that makes them look far less reliable to follow the terms in arms deals which could block them from getting nicer arms or make them far more expensive to buy upfront to price in such risks.
Consider- Trump no longer cares about S400 getting a good look at F35 since he’s compromised AND he’s got his fancy new F-47 (on paper, all that matters to trump)
Trump definitely doesn’t care. That said, this can potentially present problems with Congress because there are many congressmen on the Republican side who would be split between their political instincts for deferring to Trump who wants this to happen and for backing Israel which absolutely does not. There’s a bipartisan letter written against this from people from people in like the Hellenic Israel Alliance Caucus and so on.
Since it seems like the Turkish side is sending out communications that they’re open to getting rid of it and that would make things politically easier in DC I would think it more likely than not that the S-400 moves onto somewhere else. I hardly think the challenge in Congress is insurmountable in the face of Trump’s power if Turkey were to absolutely refuse to get rid of the S-400 but it’s not even being used so I don’t see why Turkey would not take the chance to offload a liability, look reasonable and buy brownie points for keeing the Trump admin’s life simple.