Four years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy is showing clear signs of structural exhaustion. The contours of a genuine economic endgame are coming into view for Russia. This is the finding of a new Kiel Report published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
It was predicted for more than 2 years, and it’s happening now.
The Russian economy is collapsing, The Russian wealth fund is empty, and Russia has been selling gold reserves to prop up the economy, oil exports are dwindling, and they have to import refined oil products now at inflated prices.
The Russian infrastructure is collapsing too, and farmers can’t get the harvest done, because fuel is either not available or too expensive so it will cost more to harvest than to let the crops rot in the field.
The fact that you are not seeing it, is not because it isn’t happening.
I have no idea why so many upvote you not knowing what’s going on.
Ursula von der Leyen, 2022
This sounds like more of the same.
Are you somehow implying that she was wrong?
What she said would happen is exactly what happened.
What is the point of the sanctions?
The war hasn’t ended, has it?
Exactly what Von der Leyen said?
Weaken Russia’s economy.
That means less money for foreign supplies, and machinery, means fewer missiles, fewer shells, fewer tanks.
No, but maybe ask Ukrainians if they’d rather there be no sanctions and more missiles in their cities.
But you know all that, you’re just arguing in bad faith.
And why would they want to weaken the economy? Come on you can do better than that. Use your other brain cell.
And who said they shouldn’t do sanctions? Please quote me on that. And you have the nerve to tell me I’m the one arguing in bad faith? F off
it’s literally in my comment above, read.
Why the fuck should I quote you on that? I never said you said that.
What you did do is imply that it didn’t impact Russia’s war making capabilities, and I told you that you can go ask Ukrainians about that.
yes you are.
“Just asking questions” that you know the answers to. You fuck off
So you think that is supposed to be the end goal? Maybe you can think juuust 1 step further.
Then who were you replying to? God? Santa? Why should I be the one to ask whether Ukrainians prefer no sanctions?
I said they’re ramping up ballistic missile attacks, which they are. I said nothing about the front, drone attacks or whatever. The point was that they still have plenty of production capabilities to ramp these up despite all these sanctions and years of costly war. And supposedly having hit their limit, which is what we’ve been hearing for years now. So yeah, I don’t believe the boy who cried wolf this time. F me right?
When the f did I say I was “just asking questions”? That’s the second straw man you made in two comments. You really couldn’t recognize a bad faith argument if it hit you in the face because they are all you’ve got.
No, I made a statement. There was no question mark at the end. You chose to respond to that with a load of nonsense that shows you don’t understand an iota of this conflict and act like your shitty opinion is truth.
Again “just asking questions”. If you want to make a point. Fucking make it. Fuck off with this “just asking questions” bullshit.
And yes, weakening Russia’s war making capabilities is the fucking end goal.
Europe was perfectly happy with Russia having a strong economy to buy European goods and sell them cheap gas. There is no other end goal.
Yeah, completely ignoring the fact that they’d be able to produce much more without the sanctions. Also why are cruise missile attacks dropping? Maybe because they can’t keep up production because of sanctions? funny that.
According to whom?
The only quote you made was Von der Leyen, who didn’t fucking say that, did she?
No we haven’t.
If you hear “wolf” when people say something else, that’s on you.
A comment with nothing but questions you know the answer to but imply the answer is something else. That is exactly the definition of “just asking questions”. And you do it in other places as well.
Not a statement, is it?
WTF? Sanctions have absolutely been part of reaching the point we’re at now.
Other comments by you have been misguided, but this is way way out there.
Yeah no shit Sherlock. The point is that many people have claimed it was close for years and this is just more of the same.
There is nothing “misguided” about my comment. You’re entitled to your opinion and I’m entitled to mine. You don’t hold the truth.
Facts are not a matter of opinion.
What facts exactly?
How long do you think draining a country’s economy takes?
That is a pretty silly question to ask, since experts have failed to put a proper time frame on it and have made claims that have not come true. Every country and its circumstances are different so there is no telling.
And I said in my first comment I will believe it when I see it, so what makes you think I thought it would be fast?
All I’m saying is this messaging is not so different from Von der Leyen’s rhetoric in 2022.
It took 4 years for an impoverished Germany, and they were committed to all out war. So 4 years doesn’t sound silly.
Also this article is about it actually happening now, not a prediction
Germany burned itself with all kinds megalomaniac buildings, war machines and expansion on all fronts, and it took the might of the entire allied forces to bring them down.
There have been all kinds of signs and symptoms from day one and every time they said Russia was on their last legs. Russia’s economy going down the drain has been happening since the start of the war and the sanctions. The question is whether it will end the war, of which there are currently very few signs. And as I said the ballistic missile attacks are ramping up, so they still have ample production capabilities.
So in fact, nothing new is happening now and the war in Ukraine hasn’t ended.
It’s an enormous country with an abundance of natural resources. It was always going to take a fair amount of time before they got desperate. Now they are, and it’s not going well, hence the endless missile and drone barrage.
They lost their momentum on the ground a while back, and now they’re reduced to holding what they can and hope they can break the Ukrainian morale with civilian casualties. There’s nothing new there. They’re using the same tactics they used in Chechnya all over again. The only difference is the weaponry used.
You don’t have to tell me, tell everyone who made the claim
I live about an hour from the Russian border. I know people on the other side. I can read Russian well enough to follow their news since we’re probably fairly high up on the list of targets if this goes really wrong. Not that that would end well for Russia, but they’re not exactly behaving rationally atm.
I know what it really looks like inside Russia. Can you claim the same, or do you just like to spread misinformation?
What the F are you talking about you dumbass? I am AGREEING WITH YOU
You are, huh? Where?
You didn’t answer my question.
Maybe look up the phrase someone is using, in this case “you don’t have to tell me” before you start to make accusations.
And do you really want me to answer whether I like to spread misinformation?
Yeah, no :)
In that case, do you want to disclose where you’re getting your information from?
I’m asking because it really does look like you’re simply trying to push your opinions as fact.
Do you understand Russian? Can you read it? Do you know anyone inside Russia?
Edit; For the record, I’ve lost three good friends in Ukraine so far, and a fourth is missing, so I assume she’s gone as well. Do you have any idea what’s really going on in this war?