Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said today (Wednesday) that Israeli strikes in Syria and Lebanon have reached a point where they also threaten his country, and he warned against further action, saying, “We see comprehensive initiatives led by Israel in the Mediterranean, and no one should pursue adventures there.”

Erdoğan warned against continued Israeli steps in the region and said, “Israel’s aggression threatens the entire world.” He added, “If the rights of Turks or Turkish-Cypriots are harmed in the Middle East - our response will be unequivocal and strong.”

The Turkish president went on to say, “Turkey’s security does not begin in Hatay, but also in Aleppo, Damascus and Beirut. We will not tolerate any ‘fait accompli’ in our brotherly nations, and we will not turn a blind eye to aggression against them.” He also referred to statements in Israel about a “Greater Land of Israel” and declared, “If Allah wills, we will never allow that.”

The quoted text does not look like a threat but rather a warning, so the headline of the article reads as kinda misleading to me.

Anyway no particular surprise, Turkey and Israel are in competing emerging blocks with different visions for the Middle East. Turkey is aligning with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Qatar and Egypt. That block has various states and factions relying on one or more members like North Cyprus, Syria, Eritrea, and the recognized governments of Sudan and Somalia and Yemen. Whereas Israel is in an emerging block with the UAE, India, Greece and Ethiopia. They have states/factions relying on them like the recognized government of Cyprus, the RSF in Sudan, Hijri’s National Guard in Suwayda (southeast of Syria), Somaliland (and to a lesser extent also Puntland) in Somalia. Also formerly the South Yemen separatists before they got canceled by Saudi Arabia following their offensive in Yemen. Some other regional states are split like one faction in Libya is backed by Turkey but another by like both Egypt and the UAE (they used to be on the same side).

This former emerging block is very concerning for Israel because the Turkish and Egyptian conventional militaries are quite large and Pakistan while distant has pre-existing nuclear weapons, which are in range to hit Israel anyway and could be moved quite close to give less reaction time if the other countries did some sort of nuke sharing. The foundation of it is the SMDA signed between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in the immediate aftermath of the Qatar bombing which made it clear that American protection has its limits when Israel is the one striking you, even over something America told you to do. (Namely Qatar’s hosting of Hamas leadership, which although blasted by Israel was requested by the US because previously the Hamas leaders were based in Iran and that’s a hostile place for American and Israeli diplomats to travel for peace talks considering the history there so Qatar was desired as a comfier neutral site.)

Want to emphasize again that alignment doesn’t mean the groups are in total lockstep with each other on everything they do. For instance while Israel jumped to recognize Somaliland since it could be a base against Ansar Allah (Houthis) in Yemen, and Ethiopia wanted to do a port-for-recognition deal with Somaliland but was forced to reject the idea due to international pressure, India actually issued a public statement against it. And the UAE doesn’t usually make many waves publically while sending huge money behind the scenes. And North Cyprus is more of a Turkey project than everyone else in its faction plus it’s at odds with some others on who it supports in Libya.

But anyway if you look for it you’ll see increasing cooperation among intra-block relations I mentioned and generally more negative statements from the countries involved about ones in the other block and their dependencies. For instance Greece is actually having a small uptick in public sentiment towards Israel (though still net negative) at a time when much of the rest of Europe is disliking Israel more strongly.

Putin is putting in calls to all his buddies in Bulgaria, Turkey, and UK right now. USA’s been on speed dial for a minute. His bunker must be getting really uncomfortable. Here’s to hoping Zelensky outmaneuvers him yet again.

Laughable. Erdogan doesn’t have the cajones to actually engage in a stand-up fight.

Isn’t Erdogan full of shit?

He’s just another fascist strongman who won’t actually meet his promises from what I know.

I wish it was a real threat

I doubt Israel can handle a Turkish blockade in addition to being bombed by Iran.