On Sunday, President Donald Trump said in a statement that the U.S. Navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz, doubling the impact of the current Iran...
This reduces flow of oil out, and should let Iran take a bigger toll from GCC ports that are still too close to US/Israel. The seeds of an outcome is for world to stop asking US to negotiate with Iran, and negotiate themselves. There is question that if world agrees with Iran to open straight does US do the same? But this has to be handled with a deal with Iran first, then convince US.
World is better off economically with 20m barrels (+ all other stuff from region) per day at $60/bbl than 0-1m at $150/bbl
Trump/US was remarkably polite about negotiations, suggesting that everything except nuclear was agreed to. GCC countries are unlikely to ever have their US bases rebuilt, with US peace or not with Iran. GCC countries that agree to expel US would have much better toll rate. The easy formula to reopen straight is pay the US’s reparations to Iran as a monthly toll prepayment.
Iran’s move to open straights quickly and end the war is destruction of neighbours desalination. Make them forced to rely on humanitarian aid, and to get on Iran’s good side. Risks regime change for poor attitudes.
This reduces flow of oil out, and should let Iran take a bigger toll from GCC ports that are still too close to US/Israel. The seeds of an outcome is for world to stop asking US to negotiate with Iran, and negotiate themselves. There is question that if world agrees with Iran to open straight does US do the same? But this has to be handled with a deal with Iran first, then convince US.
World is better off economically with 20m barrels (+ all other stuff from region) per day at $60/bbl than 0-1m at $150/bbl
Trump/US was remarkably polite about negotiations, suggesting that everything except nuclear was agreed to. GCC countries are unlikely to ever have their US bases rebuilt, with US peace or not with Iran. GCC countries that agree to expel US would have much better toll rate. The easy formula to reopen straight is pay the US’s reparations to Iran as a monthly toll prepayment.
Iran’s move to open straights quickly and end the war is destruction of neighbours desalination. Make them forced to rely on humanitarian aid, and to get on Iran’s good side. Risks regime change for poor attitudes.