• luciferofastora@feddit.org
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      3 hours ago

      One military historian’s analysis I’ve seen on this issue posits that the fact the US joined in on Israel’s strike last year (Twelve-Day War) put them in a position where they’d be involved in this action too, like it or not. The logic goes as follows:

      When Israel bombed Iranian nuclear facilities in June, Iran didn’t actively treat the US as a party of that war. Sure, the US did intercept missiles aimed at Israel, but that’s what you’d expect from a defensive partner, so long as they didn’t actually join the offensive.

      But on June 22nd, the US did join the offensive and directly bombed targets in Iran. Then and only then did Iran also target a US base, because now they had become an aggressor. The lesson Iran would draw from this is that, for any action Israel took, the US would possibly (likely, even) join in. As the historian put it:

      Remember, the fellow getting bombed does not get to carefully inspect the flag painted on the bomber: stuff blows up and to some degree the party being attacked has to rapidly guess who is attacking them.

      Accordingly, any Israeli attack might result in counterattacks also preemptively targeting US bases, since it’s plausible that they would be part of this offensive - whether now or later doesn’t matter. This means that the US, in turn, would be involved in any war Israel starts. If Netanyahu informs the US of a planned attack, it’s no longer just a matter of Trump being his buddy, but a strategic necessity to participate and try to make the attack as decisive as possible to minimise the response.

      Of course, the Twelve-Day War participation could be justified by the worry over nuclear proliferation due to Iran stockpiling enriched uranium. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran had upheld their end of the Iran Nuclear Deal and frozen its nuke program in 2015 in exchange for a limited lifting of sanctions but resumed it after the US withdrew from that deal in 2018.

      That withdrawal from “the worst deal ever” had been a campaign promise already, but the actual announcement that the US would no longer comply with the plan happened a week after unsubstantiated claims that Iran had violated the terms, which were made by…

      Netanyahu.

      So yes, Netanyahu probably did goad Trump into reneging on a deal without an actual alternative plan, laying the groundwork to later say “See, we need to stop them from the consequences of your actions”, in turn putting the US in a position where joining an Israeli attack on Iran became a strategic necessity.


      Fucking supremacist fucks fucking everyone else for their fucked up delusions. Trump is a malicious idiot, but the greater threat are the malicious manipulators that know just how to pull his strings.