I feel like the sample size is too low though. I wouldn’t argue that it’s more safe… But a lot of the deaths in space travel were in the early days when we were still figuring shit out and had less sophisticated technology for things like automatic abort systems etc.
For a more recent data point, how about NASA’s safety requirements for SpaceX manned flights, circa 2020?
Josh Finch, a NASA spokesperson, told Spaceflight Now that the agency’s calculated “Loss Of Crew” probability for SpaceX’s Demo-2 test flight is 1-in-276, exceeding the commercial crew program’s requirement threshold of 1-in-270.
Would you get in a car if you had a 1 in 270 chance of dying during each trip? Those aren’t great odds for surviving a year’s worth of daily commutes.
For the sake of argument, let’s use your numbers and say an average astronaut ends up taking a dozen flights on rockets designed to NASA’s 1-in-270 “loss of crew” standard. If that probability holds, then we would expect 4.4% of all astronauts flying in modern rockets to be in a fatal accident during their 12-mission career.
For comparison, lifetime driving fatality risk for American drivers is right around 1%.
I feel like the sample size is too low though. I wouldn’t argue that it’s more safe… But a lot of the deaths in space travel were in the early days when we were still figuring shit out and had less sophisticated technology for things like automatic abort systems etc.
For a more recent data point, how about NASA’s safety requirements for SpaceX manned flights, circa 2020?
Would you get in a car if you had a 1 in 270 chance of dying during each trip? Those aren’t great odds for surviving a year’s worth of daily commutes.
https://spaceflightnow.com/2020/05/22/nasa-review-clears-spacex-crew-capsule-for-first-astronaut-mission/
the difference is i doubt anyone will ever fly more than a few dozen trips in the rocket if that
For the sake of argument, let’s use your numbers and say an average astronaut ends up taking a dozen flights on rockets designed to NASA’s 1-in-270 “loss of crew” standard. If that probability holds, then we would expect 4.4% of all astronauts flying in modern rockets to be in a fatal accident during their 12-mission career.
For comparison, lifetime driving fatality risk for American drivers is right around 1%.