As of April 2026, a total of 791 people have flown into space and 19 of them have died in related incidents. This sets the current statistical fatality rate at 2.4 percent.
Or to look at it from a different angle, 5 out of the 413 total manned space flights have ended in fatalities, or 1.21%.
Auto travel in the US has a fatality rate around 1 death per 100 million driven miles. Assuming an average trip of 20 miles, that’s 1 death per 5 million car trips, or 0.00002%.
So, roughly 10,000 (EDIT: actually 100,000, missed a zero!) times more dangerous than driving.
Are you asking to change the definition of a car trip to the ~500,000 miles it takes to get to the moon and back?
In that case, rate of fatality is around 1 in 200 “driving to the moon and back” trips. 0.5% chance. So taking the rocketship is still significantly more dangerous.
More realistically, 500,000 miles is roughly a lifetime of driving. So these astronauts are being exposed in a single trip to a fatality risk equivalent of 2+ lifetimes of driving.
I don’t think it’s that likely surely it’s less risky than driving?
It is massively dangerous.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents
Ahhhh I see thanks
Or to look at it from a different angle, 5 out of the 413 total manned space flights have ended in fatalities, or 1.21%.
Auto travel in the US has a fatality rate around 1 death per 100 million driven miles. Assuming an average trip of 20 miles, that’s 1 death per 5 million car trips, or 0.00002%.
So, roughly 10,000 (EDIT: actually 100,000, missed a zero!) times more dangerous than driving.
What do the numbers look like if we assume the average trip is from the earth to the moon and back?
Are you asking to change the definition of a car trip to the ~500,000 miles it takes to get to the moon and back?
In that case, rate of fatality is around 1 in 200 “driving to the moon and back” trips. 0.5% chance. So taking the rocketship is still significantly more dangerous.
More realistically, 500,000 miles is roughly a lifetime of driving. So these astronauts are being exposed in a single trip to a fatality risk equivalent of 2+ lifetimes of driving.
this also isn’t taking sample size into account (unless my math isn’t mathing which it very likely isn’t)
Thanks for satiating my curiosity.
100,000 actually.
Good catch! Lost track of my zeros
No, definitely not. Spaceflight is still very dangerous.
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