I was under the vague impression that a number of Russian software companies had basically relocated to Armenia so as to not deal with sanctions stuff. Which was a good deal for Armenia, since they had a bunch of tech companies suddenly materialize.

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This is from 2023:

https://apri.institute/how-russian-migration-fuels-armenias-it-sector/

How Russian Migration Fuels Armenia’s IT Sector Growth

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to a significant influx of Russian IT specialists into Armenia, boosting the sector and contributing to the country’s economic recovery.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a significant exodus of Russians; some left Russia for political reasons, as they were against the war, and many did not want to compromise their lives. Armenia became one of the primary destinations for Russian migrants due to several reasons. Armenia and Russia enjoy a visa-free regime, and there are many daily flights to Yerevan from multiple Russian cities. Armenia and Russia are members of the Eurasian Economic Union, allowing tariff-free export and import. Perhaps, most importantly, many Armenians have favorable views on Russians. Despite the growing criticism of Russia in Armenia due to its actions or inaction during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, Azerbaijani incursions into Armenia in 2021 and 2022, and the military takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan in September 2023, this has not turned into resentment against Russians, as it has focused on the Russian state.

According to different estimates, up to 100,000 Russians have entered Armenia since February 2022, with two big waves, one in March-April and one in late September-October 2022, immediately after mobilization was declared in Russia. As of October 2023, up to 60,000 Russians remain in Armenia, primarily located in the capital, Yerevan, though a few Russians also live in Gyumri, the second biggest city of Armenia. Most Russians who migrated to Armenia are specialists in the IT sphere. The robust growth of the IT sector in Armenia played a role in influencing their choice, as Armenia can offer them developed infrastructure, including IT business centers and IT parks.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=AM

Looking at that chart, Armenia’s GDP-per-capita has roughly doubled since the start of the Russo-Ukranian War. Dunno how much of that is related to that movement, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it were a factor.

Windsor Mayor Drew Dilkens says parts of Trump’s post are factually incorrect, as U.S. steel was used in the construction from the Michigan side of the river.

“It’s just insane,” Dilkens told CBC Power & Politics host David Cochrane on Monday evening.

“I really can’t believe what I’m reading,” Dilkens said. “The faster we can get to the midterms and hopefully see a change, the better for all of us.”

The midterms are the nearest big inflection point, and the Democrats will most likely take the House. However, unless there are angles that I don’t know about, the most important thing that the Democrats will be able to likely directly do in terms of Trump doing a lot of Executive Branch things after the midterms is threaten a government shutdown when the next budget rolls around (and it won’t be on a limited “hopefully the Republicans don’t just decide to end the fillibuster and take away our power to block the budget” basis a la last time). That’s a big gun, but it’s got limited usability, and they probably have a lot of things that they want to horse-trade on it already.

They can block more legislation from being passed, but that won’t really change the status quo, not unless something new and unexpected comes up in the second half of the term that the Trump administration really wants legislation on. The Republicans have a trifecta now, so they’ll try to pass whatever they want prior to the midterms.

The biggest politically-useful thing that I’m aware of that the Democrats get is that in both houses of Congress, investigations require a simple majority, and they’ll probably have at least the House. Trump has done about a zillion things that probably would be a pretty solid case for Congress to start investigations — that’s a big part of Congress’s job, to oversee the Executive Branch — and if you get a simple majority in either house of Congress, you can compel the Executive Branch to turn over a lot of information on what it’s been doing. So Trump and a number of other people from the administration might be spending a lot of the second half of Trump’s term sitting in front of Congressional investigations.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_congressional_hearing#Investigative_hearings

Oversight hearings

Oversight hearings review or study a law, issue, or an activity, often focusing on the quality of federal programs and the performance of government officials. Hearings also ensure that the executive branch’s execution goes with legislative intent, while administrative policies reflect the public interest. Oversight hearings often seek to improve the efficiency, economy, and effectiveness of government operations. A significant part of a committee’s hearings workload is dedicated to oversight. For example, on a single day, May 8, 1996, the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources held an oversight hearing to look into a recent increase in gasoline prices; the Committee on Governmental Affairs held an oversight hearing on the Internal Revenue Service; the Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions held an oversight hearing on the implementation of the Family and Medical Leave Act; and the Committee on Indian Affairs held an oversight hearing on the impact of a recent Supreme Court case involving Indian gaming. Many committees oversee existing programs in the context of hearings on related legislation, or routinely perform oversight when it is time to reauthorize a program, so oversight hearings may be combined with legislative hearings.

Investigative hearings

Investigative hearings share some of the characteristics of legislative and oversight hearings. The difference lies in Congress’s stated determination to investigate, usually when there is a suspicion of wrongdoing on the part of public officials acting in their official capacity, or private citizens whose activities suggest the need for a legislative remedy. Congress’s authority to investigate is broad and it has exercised this authority since the earliest days of the republic. The first such hearings were held by the House of Representatives in 1792 following St. Clair’s Defeat in the Battle of the Wabash.[11] Its most famous inquiries are benchmarks in American history: Credit Mobilier, Teapot Dome, Army-McCarthy, Watergate, and Iran-Contra. Investigative hearings often lead to legislation to address the problems uncovered. Judicial activities in the same area of Congress’s investigation may precede, run simultaneously with, or follow such inquiries.

Congress can pretty much shut down the President, or even remove him from office if he breaks a law, but it requires hefty supermajorities to do so, and unless the Democrats can turn up more-damning information via investigations or similar than they have so far, I doubt that they’d get enough Republican Congressmen to vote with them to do that to Trump.

• Impeachment alone doesn’t do much; it’s just a formal accusation of wrongdoing. If the Democrats take the House, they can impeach Trump. The problem is that that just initiates the process to remove the President from office. You need a two-thirds supermajority in the Senate to convict, which is a very high bar, and the Democrats will not have that, so they’d need to convince at least some Republican senators to vote to convict in an impeachment trial. And this really requires a law to be broken; it’s a not a recall vote or a “you’re doing a bad job” remedy something like that, but to deal with lawbreaking.

• Congress can pass new legislation over the President’s veto. However, it requires a two-thirds supermajority in both the House and the Senate to do so, so unless at least a significant number of Republicans get onboard, which I’m skeptical will happen, I doubt that they can pass laws requiring the bridge to be opened or whatever over a Trump veto.

There may be some more subtle things that might happen. So, the Supreme Court may decide not to block Executive Branch action due to the political question doctrine even if the President is likely acting outside his powers, if it’s not clear that there’s an actual disagreement between a majority in Congress and the President, over something like Trump using emergency power tariffs. That is, they may let the President do X if it looks like Congress is actually just fine with X and is just letting the President take the heat for doing X. But if the Democrats take the House and then clearly have a majority object, that might turn into SCOTUS ruling on the tariffs. That might address some things. However, I would bet that it’s probably within Presidential powers to prevent this bridge from being opened, though, so I don’t think that that would likely change due to the midterms.

My guess is that if Trump really wants to, and isn’t just posting to generate noise, he probably could block the opening of the bridge for the next three years.

Why buy Russian Steel?

Without looking at the numbers, I’d guess that Russia is probably the cheapest option for those companies importing it from Russia.

It also sounds like it’s not just steel in general, but some specific stuff:

Sanctions on Russian exports have blocked most steel products from flowing into the EU, especially the most basic ones. Yet semi-finished slabs are still permitted into the bloc because Belgium, Czechia and Italy requested they remain available for factories that they say have no alternative sources of supply.

I’m a little skeptical that nobody else out there produces those, though.

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Apparently they look like this:

https://kavehmetal.com/steel-slab-7-essential-tips2025-guide/

Steel slab plays a vital role in the production of steel sheets, plates, and other related products. Its use is particularly prominent in the manufacture of:

Hot-rolled sheets or black sheets: The slab is heated to a specific temperature, then passed through rollers to reduce thickness and achieve the desired dimensions.

Structural components: It is also used in the production of I-beams, rebars, and steel pipes, which are essential for construction and infrastructure projects.

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/new-tesla-sales-spain-fall-44-december-2026-01-02/

New Tesla sales in Spain fall 44% in December

Jan 2 (Reuters) - Tesla’s (TSLA.O) New car sales in Spain fell 44.2% in December from the same month in 2024 to 1,794 vehicles, registration data from industry group ANFAC showed on Friday.

February should be interesting.

While that is true in theory, it’s also true that it’s a little more complicated than that.

My understanding is that in the past, the US tried placing tariffs on steel originating from China — steel being a strategic good, something where there’s a positive externality to having a secure supply — and it wound up effectively being routed through other countries.

A second issue is that it’s not just a matter of the steel moving through countries directly, but the fact that products can be manufactured in other countries using steel from China, and there isn’t any system for tracking that. Like, say I buy a desktop computer case made of sheet metal from, oh, Taiwan. Where did the Taiwanese manufacturer get the steel from?

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Here’s something from Brookings (Brookings not being particularly enthusiastic about either Trump or protectionist trade policy):

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/is-china-circumventing-us-tariffs-via-mexico-and-canada/

Since 2018, the U.S. has imposed and ratcheted up tariffs on a broad range of Chinese imports. U.S. tariffs on China have created incentives for Chinese products to circumvent these tariffs by entering the U.S. via Canada and Mexico, paying either the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) tariff rate of zero or the U.S. WTO Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) rate, which has been well below U.S. tariffs on China. Chinese circumvention of U.S. tariffs undermines the U.S. policy of reducing economic integration with China and addressing the impact of China’s imports on U.S. manufacturing. This paper analyzes the extent of Chinese circumvention of U.S. tariffs up until the end of 2024. Since President Donald Trump came into office in 2025, he has raised tariffs further on imports from China and (but to a lesser extent so far) on imports from Canada, Mexico, and other countries as well. At the time of writing, U.S. tariffs were in flux, but the end result will most likely be U.S. tariffs on imports from China that continue to be higher than U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, thereby maintaining the incentive for circumvention.

This paper analyzes three ways that Chinese products can circumvent U.S. tariffs:

1. Transshipment, which occurs when an import from China passes through Mexico or Canada on its way to the U.S.
2. Incorporation of Chinese products into North American supply chains. This includes manufacturing in Mexico and Canada to produce products that are then exported to the U.S.
3. Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) into Mexico and Canada to produce goods that are then exported to the U.S.

Even aside from the whole Russia angle, an oil tanker running aground is bad news, just from an “huge oil mess potential” standpoint. I wonder if it was empty, seeing as the article didn’t mention oil spill risk?

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Doesn’t sound like it was empty.

https://uawire.org/french-forces-escort-seized-russian-shadow-fleet-tanker-grinch-to-marseille-hand-over-to-prosecutors

On January 25, AFP published video provided by the French Armed Forces General Staff. The footage shows a military helicopter hovering above the tanker as armed French personnel fast-rope onto the deck, make contact with the crew and conduct an inspection.

The Insider reviewed the AFP video and noted the tanker was riding low in the water — in places the waterline was barely visible due to waves. Such draft typically indicates the ship is carrying a full or near-full load.

Oh, “grounded” here must be some kind of bad translation. I suspect that they mean “impounded” or something like that.

An order had been issued on Friday prohibiting British activists from gathering for a planned “stop the boats” protest nicknamed Operation Overlord in the departments of Nord and Pas-de-Calais.

They named a protest aimed at stopping boats from crossing the English Channel…after what was probably the largest crossing of boats across the English Channel ever?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Overlord

Operation Overlord was the codename for the Battle of Normandy, the Allied operation that launched the successful liberation of German-occupied Western Europe during World War II. The operation was launched on 6 June 1944 (D-Day) with the Normandy landings (Operation Neptune). A 1,200-plane airborne assault preceded an amphibious assault involving more than 5,000 vessels. Nearly 160,000 troops crossed the English Channel on 6 June, and more than two million Allied troops were in France by the end of August.

I was going to wince at a US publication not doing European geography, but no, it’s actually the British The Independent, of all places.

I mean, there are a number of cases in mythologies where you can find common elements. I’d buy that in some cases, there might be common elements causing it, but I don’t think that it’d need to be a common hallucinogen.

Off-the-cuff, some examples:

• Dragons

• “Hybrid” animals that are a conglomeration of different animals.

• Ghosts

• Mermaids.

• House spirits

• Sun gods

It’s not just EVs that are connected.

Society can’t have females stripping for males — which I’m assuming from the official’s phrasing does not constitute a “direct and cynical violation of basic moral norms and traditional spiritual values” — if they’re not leaving the kitchen.

Speaking in an interview with News.ru, Ivanov declared: "The creators of GTA 6 deliberately go to include destructive and vulgar content in their product, completely unacceptable to the moral health of society.

“This includes the planned inclusion of scenes of male striptease in the game, which is a direct and cynical violation of basic moral norms and traditional spiritual values.”

So…is this because the state has an issue with homosexuality, or are, say, bachelorette parties off-limits too?

The issues run deeper, Kaas Elias explained, than just these most recent cuts. “Unfortunately, the federal government has taken a step backward when it comes to public transport,” he said. For example, the Deutschlandticket for regional public transport across the country has transformed from a €9 a month COVID-19 era mega-success to €63 a month as of January 2026.

If I remember correctly back when that was announced, and there was some discussion on Reddit about it, that was intended from the beginning to be a temporary program.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutschlandticket

The Deutschlandticket (Deutschlandticket, lit. ‘Germany ticket’), also known as the D-Ticket, is a monthly subscription for local and regional public transport valid throughout Germany. It was introduced in May 2023 by the Scholz cabinet as the successor to the temporary 9-Euro-Ticket offered in summer 2022.

WP says it was temporary too.

While I agree with the general sentiment, he was already in office for four during his first term, and we are at the end of the first year of his second term. So 5 out of 8 years down.

Frankly, if I were about to initiate a conflict with the US, I’d rather have Trump running the country, but you do you.

control of the world’s rare earth minerals

China’s dominance isn’t really because China has exclusive access to known reserves of it. It’s because China dominates the processing industry for these. I’d guess that at least some of that is probably due to more-permissive environmental regulations.

https://www.npr.org/2025/07/23/nx-s1-5475137/china-rare-earth-elements

Many so-called rare earth elements are actually quite common, and they are mined globally, but China has a near-monopoly on refining them for use in everyday electronics, like smartphones and speakers, as well as for crucial defense systems, like fighter jets.

https://rareearthexchanges.com/news/how-china-processes-rare-earths-what-review-really-shows/

Environmental performance differs regionally—higher impacts at Bayan Obo (legacy tailings, fluorine management), lower-impact circuits in Sichuan, and improving in-situ protocols in the South. Nonetheless, wastewater, ammonium-nitrogen, and tailings management remain significant sustainability challenges. And we know the devastating state of Myanmar’s heavy rare earth mining operations.

Aside from the issues that the article notes, I am skeptical that this is gonna work from a business protection standpoint, if protectionism is the state’s goal.

Say the issue is that VW cannot make EVs in Europe competitive with BYD in China. Labor or environmental regulation costs drive their costs up. Say BYD can make a car for 75% of what VW can.

The EU says “okay” and sticks a price floor in the EU Customs Union at whatever VW is selling at.

Ah, now the playing field is level! Or…is it?

Yes, BYD can’t undercut VW on prices now. But it still has that cost advantage. What BYD is going to do is to spend that extra money on adding more desirable features to their car. So now, at the price floor, you’re going to have a lackluster VW model and a really spiffy BYD model. Okay, maybe VW can ride on their reputation for a bit, but at some point, if BYD is consistently putting out better cars at a given price point, that’s gonna affect consumer views.

What I expect it will do is reduce the number of people buying EVs at the lower end of the market, where VW wasn’t making an entrant, so now those consumers will probably be getting a conventional vehicle instead of an EV.

The man, who was not wearing a wetsuit or life jacket, managed to get back on the bed but was dragged off course by currents, so he called 999.

This seems like a good example of where having water-ingress-protected cell phones is a good idea.

Japan’s ‍ambassador to Vietnam Naoki Ito told Reuters Japan had dropped out ⁠of plans to build a major nuclear power plant in Vietnam because the government’s goal of having it online by 2035 was too ambitious.

Chinh instructed officials to complete talks with Russia in January and find a new partner to replace Japan for the ‌second project, with the aim of having the two nuclear power plants online “after 2031,” the article said.

Vietnam, home to large manufacturing operations for multinationals including Samsung and Apple, has faced major power blackouts as demand from its huge industrial sector and expanding middle class often outpaces supplies. The power grid has ​also been ⁠strained by increasingly frequent extreme weather, such as droughts and typhoons. The country wants to increase electricity production ​from multiple sources, mostly renewables and gas, ​but ​projects have faced delays and uncertainty over regulatory and pricing issues.

If their major concern is getting enough power online quickly to mitigate current shortages, I wonder how practical it would be to interconnect to other nearby countries.

Also, does kinda make me wonder whether there’s a market for floating nuclear power plants. The issue with conventional nuclear power plants is the time to build them. But if you badly need more generation capacity in a given point and have a prebuilt one, you can move it wherever in the world demand is highest, and in pretty short order.

“They’ll find a reason to impeach me,” Mr. Trump said. “I’ll get impeached.”

Maybe. They almost certainly won’t have enough to convict you, though, can’t remove you. I do expect that you and several of your cabinet are probably going to spend the second half of your term sitting in front of House investigations, though. You’ve done probably enough things that probably warrant investigations for a dozen Presidents.

I’d also add that in 250 years, we’ve had four impeachments of Presidents:

• Andrew Johnson

• Bill Clinton

• Trump.

• Trump. Again.

Somehow, all this time, opposing parties haven’t generally gone out and impeached the President. The X factor here is you.