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Cake day: July 2nd, 2023

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  • France and UK combined have a far superior military with greater capability, plus nuclear options. Poland by itself is technically only in a superior defensive position, and doesn’t have the long range strike capabilities of France or UK.

    That said, what would stop Polish forces from advancing are Russian military lines and deep defenses that have so far proven to be incredibly fragile behind the front lines. It’s assumed that Russia could pull in a lot more troops and equipment if needed, but reality makes that picture look a lot more shaky. Everyone thinks Russia has deep layers of defense and a million troops to move around as needed. But at the same time, their logistical failures have continued to be so immense that a coordinated attack beyond what they’re handling in Ukraine would likely strain their operations beyond usefulness.







  • It’s not even a question of winning the battle, it’s that Iran could very likely turn the island into a smoldering fire pit in a dozen different ways without even stepping on the island. From Iran’s side, they’re not going to win a face to face confrontation and they know it. If they spark up that island, oil prices shoot for the moon the next day, which puts Trump on a path to impeachment surprisingly fast. The right wing only reacts when things affect them personally, and gas is touching every one of them in their no no place, the wallet.





  • China already saw this coming, that’s why they pushed so hard on solar and battery tech. Last year they dropped in 250GW of solar, and they’ll probably do more this year. It’s not there yet, but they’re not as worried about this as you might think. It’s a problem, but not a crippling emergency.

    Europe on the other hand doesn’t have good options. Regardless of what they could do, what they don’t have now is the infrastructure to do it. And their biggest problem to clear out the Strait isn’t Iran, it’s Trump. European prosecutors are taking banking records from European banks about the Epstein files. While they can’t prosecute Trump directly in any way, they can hand over anything they want to congress, or the public. In short, they are a threat to Trump, and he knows it, and he will attack anyone who threatens him, or Putin.